‘The Big One’ May Not Be So Bad For Los Angeles – Report

New research claims the shaking from a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the south San Andreas fault posits that Los Angeles may see 50% less ground motion than previously predicted.

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While “This is only one scenario,” said study co-author Te-Yang Yeh , a postdoctoral researcher at San Diego State University, it is a rare outlook that movies and TV have always painted as a major disaster.

The study has not yet undergone peer review, but appears on the preprint site ESS Open Archive . It updates computer modeling first conducted during the 2008 Great Southern California ShakeOut, a project quantifying the consequences of a magnitude 7.8 quake on the southern San Andreas fault, which runs 30 miles (50 kilometers) east of downtown LA.

The Statewide California Earthquake Center predicts a worst-case earthquake is expected to cause 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, and $200 billion in damage.

The quake simulations used in the ShakeOut project were not as detailed as today’s technology allows, Yeh told Live Science.

Their results showed a better outlook for LA. “The ground motions are still profound,” Yeh said. “But it’s not as horrifying as what was previously predicted.”

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