Breaking down PFF, ESPN previews of the 2024 USC Trojans

With the offseason clock slowly but surely ticking down, many national outlets are producing preview pieces on individual teams and conferences. Recently, PFF took a look at the USC Trojans , while ESPN’s Bill Connelly took a look at the entire Big Ten Conference . Here’s a breakdown of what they see.

PFF’s biggest strength and weakness

PFF listed USC’s biggest strength as the Trojans’ high-upside offensive skill players. Running back Woody Marks , quarterback Miller Moss and the quartet of sophomore wide receivers were mentioned. There’s also confidence in Lincoln Riley to put together a dynamic offense regardless of his personnel or situation.

“His offenses have placed among the Power Five’s top 10 in EPA per play every year since he became Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator in 2015.”

Every “weakness” discussion of the 2024 Trojans will center on the defense, and PFF’s take is no different.

“While his offenses have been elite, defense has been the bane of Riley’s existence. His defenses at USC finished 118th and 123rd in EPA per play in his two years there.”

PFF asks, “How quickly will the defense improve?”

D’Anton Lynn’s jump in one season at UCLA was striking. The Bruins went from 111th in EPA per play in 2022 to 8th in 2023. He’ll have a different roster at USC and will be facing a different schedule, but how successfully he can produce that same quick turnaround with the Trojans will likely be the key to the season.

ESPN doesn’t see USC as Big Ten contender

“It feels like a letdown to say that only four of 18 teams are genuine title contenders in the Big Ten race — it definitely tamps down the number of huge games — but can you make the case for someone outside of the top four?” Connelly wrote. “I certainly can’t, though a mashup of USC’s offense and Iowa’s defense would produce the best team in the country.”

USC’s ESPN SP+ projection has the Trojans averaging 6.4 total wins and 4.8 conference wins against what it ranks as the 11th toughest schedule in the nation (the toughest any Big Ten team will face).

ESPN’s SP+ still isn’t a believe in the USC defense, even with all the changes. The Trojans are No. 5 nationally on offense (and No. 2 in the Big Ten behind Oregon). But USC is all the way down at No. 87 nationally for defensive SP+, which is dead last in the Big Ten and 21 spots below Purdue, which is next-to-last in the conference.

Connelly lists Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan and Penn State as the true title contenders in the Big Ten. USC is listed under “A couple of breaks (OK, maybe a few) away from a run.”

“With his brilliant offenses, all Riley needs is a top-40 defense to contend for titles. In the past six seasons, he has had just one of those. In finally replacing Grinch, though, he did make a hell of a hire, stealing UCLA’s D’Anton Lynn, who flipped the Bruins’ defense from 92nd to 17th in defensive SP+ last season. Riley doesn’t recruit as well on defense, but Lynn still inherits some decent players in the front six — tackle Bear Alexander , end Jamil Muhamm ad , linebacker Mason Cobb — and could benefit from some nice portal work in the secondary, where a couple of his better Bruins (corner John Humphrey and safety Kamari Ramsey ) make the crosstown move and safety Akili Arnold (Oregon State) and corner/nickel Greedy Vance Jr. (Florida State) could provide upgrades. Does Lynn have another miracle turnaround in him?”

After what we saw on defense for giant chunks of the past two years, a complete turnaround on that side of the ball would certainly seem to qualify as a miracle. There’s definitely a belief among coaches and players on this USC team they can get enough done on that side of the ball to compete in every game, for the conference, and nationally. But it’s a question that will linger through fall camp, into the first game, and likely beyond.

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