Dodgers biggest 1st half disappointment has clouded their starting rotation picture

When you think about first half disappointments for a team like the Los Angeles Dodgers, the easiest thing to think about is health.

This is, after all, a team with multiple superstars on both sides of the ball. Sitting comfortably in first place in their division at the break. If it weren't for injuries to multiple key players, one imagines they'd be sitting even prettier in the larger National League context.

In large part, those that were supposed to perform at a high level have done so. Sure, the team could stand to shore up its depth in a couple of areas before the deadline. But aside from health, the guys that were supposed to be good have been quite good. That doesn't mean that determining a first half disappointment from those currently healthy is a difficult task, though. Because those that had expectations ahead of '24 are missing a name from the list of those meeting them.

The 2024 season was supposed to be a step forward for Bobby Miller as a part of the team's rotation. He was coming off a season in which he posted a 3.76 ERA and 3.51 FIP, with a strong 23.6 K% against an even stronger 6.3 percent walk rate. He held opponents to reasonable contact quality in '23, with a 37.4 HardHit% and a mere 6.0 percent barrel rate, all while getting the ball on the ground a more-than-respectable 47.7 percent of the time.

Miller's 2024 season has been...not that.

After making three starts out of the gate, Miller landed on the IL with shoulder inflammation. Even those three starts, though, included seven earned runs allowed across just 11.2 innings of work. Upon his return, things seemingly got worse.

Miller's first two starts off the IL came against two of the worst teams in baseball. He allowed five earned to Colorado before another three against the Chicago White Sox. Miller was decent enough against Arizona in the subsequent start, with only two earned in five innings. But then he was touched for nine against the Philadelphia Phillies and was optioned to Triple-A.

Each stretch has left Miller's numbers in a questionable spot. On the season, he's at an ERA of 8.07 and a 6.30 FIP. His strikeout numbers have remained decent, but his walk rate has more than doubled, up to 13.5 percent. This, while allowing much more hard contact (43.2 percent) and a higher barrel rate (11.4 percent) across his seven starts.

It's not so much the struggles of Bobby Miller in a vacuum that represent the biggest disappointment. Obviously the sophomore slump component is problematic given the step forward he was expected to take. But the timing of his woes only enhances the struggle itself.

The team has been without Yoshinobu Yamamoto & Walker Buehler for quite a while. Clayton Kershaw has yet to pitch this season. Even Tyler Glasnow hit the Injured List just before the break. Miller had an opportunity to provide a sense of stability and could not. For the Dodgers to option him in the wake of so many injuries to their starting staff speaks to the reset that he so clearly needed.

That's not to say Miller can't get his 2024 back on track. He's armed with top tier velocity and quality secondary pitches. But given the team's need in the rotation stemming from injury, it's hard to imagine a larger first half disappointment than Bobby Miller's inability to provide stability in the wake of the even bigger one (team health).