Latinos, renters and presidential politics could extend L.A.’s lurch to the political left

Demography, politics and the unintended consequences of civic reforms have pushed Los Angeles to the left, creating an electorate hostile to Republicans and shaping the prospects of candidates and causes this November and beyond.

That broad, historic trend may get an added boost this election cycle with the emergence of Vice President Kamala Harris as the presumed Democratic candidate for president.

For most of the 1900s, Los Angeles was solidly Republican, in part because its civic elite, including the owners of the Los Angeles Times, built the city as an anti-union counterpart to San Francisco. If San Francisco was a city of docks and labor — and Democrats — Los Angeles was one of suburbs and single-family homes — and Republicans.

That began to shift in the 1960s, but the city still retained enough of that legacy to elect Richard Riordan, a Republican, as its mayor in 1993. The conditions were right: The city had been through a riot in 1992, so Riordan’s slogan, “Tough Enough to Turn LA Around,”  found purchase in a rattled electorate.

Rick Caruso’s attempt to replicate that strategy in 2022 fell well short, as the businessman-turned-politician was handily defeated by then-Congresswoman Karen Bass. Some of that was specific to the campaign: Bass was and is a likable personality and an experienced political leader. Caruso had no elected experience and registered as a Democrat just in time for the election, raising questions about opportunism.

Much of it also reflected deep, underlying shifts in the Los Angeles electorate — changes other big cities can expect, as Los Angeles charts future trends in demographics and politics.

The most significant, long-term change in the Los Angeles electorate is the one that the rest of California is beginning to experience and that the rest of the nation can expect in the coming years: Los Angeles has become a predominantly Latino city, and its political behavior increasingly reflects that.

“The single biggest thing,” said Bill Carrick, a veteran Democratic strategist and leading observer of LA politics, “is the growth in Latino voters.”

Latinos have become a majority of the population and, increasingly, the lion’s share of the electorate , and they have tended to vote for Democrats. That trend — with smaller but significant growth in the number of Asian American voters and younger voters — has helped reshape the city’s political map, he said. Once reliably moderate, Republican areas of the San Fernando Valley now are solidly Democratic, leaving no significant base of Republican voters left in Los Angeles.

Recent private polling also proves the point. Two surveys conducted in recent weeks — and shared confidentially with me — asked Los Angeles voters to describe themselves politically. Nearly two-thirds called themselves “strong Democrats” or leaning that way, compared to less than 20% who identified as Republican or leaning Republican.

Changes pulled Los Angeles voters left

Other forces are at work, too. Ten years ago, one of Los Angeles’ innumerable blue-ribbon commissions sized up the city and proposed a series of recommendations to arrest its “decline.”

The Los Angeles 2020 Commission’s recommendations, contained in its Time for Action report, were mostly ignored — deservedly, because most of the proposals were off the mark — but the city did adopt one. It shifted its election cycle from odd-numbered years to even-numbered years in order to coincide with state and federal elections and thus boost voter turnout.

That, too, was ill-advised in some respects. It has resulted in less focused news reporting on city elections, allowing local candidates to run with much less vetting. News organizations are forced to split their political coverage between state and federal races, with local contests receiving less attention than those at the top of the ticket.

But the change has a more discernible effect: It has moved the electorate to the left.

Within the bigger turnout are more voters who might not have otherwise participated . Those so-called marginal voters tend to be busy working people, younger people, more often liberals than conservatives, so the voting pool has become more liberal.

Rick Jacobs, another shrewd analyst of Los Angeles politics, cited the change in the election calendar at the top of his list of reasons why the city’s electorate has shifted in recent years.

“It’s not a leftward tilt, so much as the new election calendar is more reflective of LA’s electorate,” he said.

Other changes are having an effect, too. Los Angeles has shifted from being a city of homeowners to one of renters. They tend to be younger, and their interests in communities and services are often different than those of older, more established homeowners.

The media landscape has changed as well. The Los Angeles Times, once a powerful force in shaping local races, has dwindled in circulation and influence. Carrick said its endorsements still matter, but “with fewer people who subscribe and even fewer who read the home edition,” its picks more often are helpful in supplementing candidate advertising than they are in reaching voters directly.

And Los Angeles no longer has much of a viable political center. Or, if it does, that center now exists somewhere between moderate Democrats and progressives. Mayor Bass would be a liberal in any big city other than LA; here, she is a moderate.

Impact of November elections

As fall elections approach, the electorate — who votes and in what numbers — could determine some of the local races that voters will consider. The November ballot includes a closely watched contest for district attorney, for instance, as well as a proposed sales tax hike for homeless services.

The DA race may or may not play along partisan lines . Incumbent George Gascón will appeal to progressives — he styles himself as a progressive prosecutor — while his challenger, Nathan Hochman, is running as an independent but two years ago ran for California attorney general as a Republican. If the race shapes up in partisan terms, that gives Gascón an obvious edge in a very liberal electorate.

But Gascón has other difficulties, including widespread criticism of his management, reflected in his abysmal approval ratings. “He may be an exception to all this,” Carrick said.

More susceptible to the area’s leftward shift may be the proposed tax increase for the homeless. That proposal would replace an existing quarter-cent sales tax due to expire in 2017 with a permanent half-cent tax. It has qualified for the November ballot.

The tax hike enjoys broad — but not unanimous — support among city and county leaders and organizations. United Way is backing it, for example; BizFed, a group of employers, has come out against it.

Tax hikes are always a challenge, and supporters of the measure had worried that a dispirited electorate might not turn out for President Joe Biden, especially after his disastrous debate performance fueled doubts about his age and fitness for office.

That mood has shifted dramatically since Biden stepped out of the race and Harris, a popular figure in Los Angeles and among voters of color, assumed leadership of her party and its likely nomination.

That, Jacobs said, could boost progressive voter turnout and have implications up and down the ballot, including for the homeless services measure.

Every election brings nuances. Substance, Carrick noted, has a habit of getting in the way of trends.

But the long-term arc of Los Angeles politics is clear. Once an anchor of conservatism, it now is on the cutting edge of progressive politics. That is driven by issues, but also by the electorate itself.

Jim Newton is a veteran journalist, best-selling author and teacher. He worked at the Los Angeles Times for 25 years as a reporter, editor, bureau chief and columnist, covering government and politics.

This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: Latinos, renters and presidential politics could extend L.A.’s lurch to the political left