Lake Fire could explode in size as strong winds arrive

The Lake Fire in Santa Barbara County expanded by 6,000 acres overnight Monday, charging across steep hills near the town of Los Olivos. Evacuation orders — which can be found here — have expanded as well. As of mid-Tuesday, the fire had burned 26,176 acres and was 12% contained.

Expect things to get worse, fast.

A red flag warning has been issued by the National Weather Service and will be in place until 9 p.m. During that time, heat in the triple digits, low humidity and wind gusts of up to 35 mph could result in rapid wildfire spread. Strong winds can also throw embers long distances, starting up spot fires and making it difficult for firefighters to establish a perimeter.

The area will see similar temperatures and humidity levels Wednesday, but winds are expected to start to die down. Wind driven spread will still be possible, but it shouldn't be as extreme on Tuesday.

The complex terrain also makes it difficult for firefighters to get a handle on the blaze. Hiking in 100 degrees with full gear up steep hills is not only tough, but dangerous, making heat related illness a real concern. Three firefighters have already been injured.

Retardant and water drops could also be affected by strong winds and thick smoke columns that are expected to rise from the fire. Just like the pot on a stove, the hotter it gets, the more smoke we'll see.

While we often hear that fire season is year round now, that's only partly true. Different types of vegetation dry at different rates, reaching critical levels faster the hotter it is. This sustained heat wave has helped to dry out not only grasses and medium-sized brush, but larger vegetation as well. All of that means, there's more for the fire to consume and it could be more difficult to tamp down.

Look out for an increasing number of wildfires across the state as this heat wave continues. Just about every one that starts will be the result of people unless lightning comes along. Put simply, we could avoid many of the most devastating fires by not starting them in the first place.

Vista Fire

Summary : Started on Sunday, July 7, in San Bernardino National Forest. The cause is unclear.

Acreage : 1,095 acres with zero containment as of Tuesday morning.

Evacuations : The fire is burning within one mile of the Mt. Baldy ski resort, which is under an evacuation order. The Pacific Crest Trail, from Lytle Creek to Mt. Baldy is closed.

Why the concern? While not nearly as large as the Lake Fire, the Vista Fire is likely to send smoke across the region for the coming days. It's worth paying attention to as the fire is burning through steep and tough-to-navigate terrain, making it a bit challenging to get a handle on. Conditions aren't expected to improve all that much throughout the week, so it could continue to spread. It's not near a whole lot of development, so life safety isn't as much of a concern.

Is this normal?

While fires like these aren't unheard of during this time of year, we usually see larger conflagrations in the fall when bigger vegetation has dried out enough to carry fire and the Santa Ana winds show up, often making fire spread unstoppable.

Unfortunately, due to high temperatures, vegetation across much of the state is drier than normal for this time of year. Two years of good rain and few fires has resulted in an increase of grass growth in some areas, raising the amount of fuel available to burn. If that dry grass catches on fire, given there's so much dry vegetation, fire can quickly spread to larger fuels, making it more difficult to stop.