Downpours aim for Texas, Louisiana as potential tropical system brews in Gulf of Mexico

Regardless of development, AccuWeather hurricane experts say a plume of tropical moisture will expand across the central and western Gulf coast, resulting in poor beach weather and, in some cases, significant flooding.

AccuWeather hurricane experts are keeping a close watch on the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development during the upcoming week. Regardless of development, a plume of tropical moisture will expand across the central and western Gulf coast, resulting in poor beach weather and, in some cases, significant flooding. And forecasters say that will not be the only area to watch for development in the basin during the coming week.

After a tropical rainstorm unloaded feet of rain in South Florida this past week, all eyes have now shifted farther south and west, where a broad, disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms is swirling counterclockwise over Central America. This feature, known in the meteorology community as a "gyre," can help to spawn tropical systems.

Alberto is the first name on the 2024 Atlantic list, and there's the potential that AccuWeather's hurricane experts could be tracking a storm with that name at some point this week. On Thursday afternoon, AccuWeather placed a "high" risk for development in the Bay of Campeche, which can occur between Monday and Wednesday.

"At this point, any developing tropical feature looks to move quickly westward into Mexico around Wednesday, June 19," AccuWeather Meteorologist Andrew Kienzle said.

Limited time over water and close proximity to land will limit the potential for a tropical system to intensify quickly. However, forecasters cannot rule out the potential for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form.

• Have the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+

Regardless of development, widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to inundate the countries of Central America and southern Mexico with heavy rain into Monday, which can lead to flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

"Deep tropical moisture will also spread northward into the western and central Gulf Coast states by Monday, bringing the risk of downpours and flooding concerns," Kienzle said.

Depending on the intensity of the rainfall, there is the potential for significant flash flooding along the Interstate 10 corridor from New Orleans to Houston. Heavy rain is expected to expand west across central and southern Texas as the week progresses.

"Heavy rain and flash flooding are expected to be the most significant impacts, regardless of whether a tropical depression forms or a storm is named," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.

Along the coast, there can also be dangerous surf and rip currents for several days.

"Should the system strengthen into a tropical storm, a smaller area of locally damaging winds would be possible where the center of the storm moves onshore," Douty said.

Southeast coast bears watching later this week

AccuWeather hurricane experts are closely monitoring the potential for an area of low pressure to form off of a stalled front over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the middle days of the week. Should a storm develop, a jog westward is anticipated.

Regardless of whether a tropical depression or storm fully develops, this path may put the drenched Sunshine State in line for another round of tropical downpours.

The prospects of development from one or more systems, as well as the recent deluge of rain in Florida from a tropical rainstorm, are both early harbingers of what is expected to be a very busy Atlantic hurricane season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, and the historical average date of the first named system in the basin is June 20.

Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific, now nearly a month into its hurricane season, is still awaiting the first named tropical system. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to Nov. 30, and the historical average date of the first named storm in the basin is June 10.

Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.