Harris’s ascension moves Maine out of Trump’s reach: Poll

Vice President Kamala Harris opened a healthy lead over former President Donald Trump in Maine after she replaced President Joe Biden as the presumptive Democratic nominee.

A University of New Hampshire poll released Thursday shows Harris leading Trump in a head-to-head matchup, 54%-45%, and by 48%-40% in a matchup including third-party candidates.

In 2020, Biden defeated Trump in the state by a 53%-44% margin, meaning Harris is currently in line with the president's performance. Biden had only led Trump, 51%-49% in a head-to-head April poll from Digital Research.

Biden was dogged by concerns about his age and mental acuity following a disastrous debate performance against Trump in June, which saw the president's poll numbers drop in several states. Polls in states believed to be safely in the Democratic column, including Virginia and Minnesota, showed Trump either close behind or ahead of Biden.

Early polls since Harris was tapped to replace Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket indicate that she performs better than Trump, but by how much has yet to be fully seen.

The poll released Thursday also showed that Trump maintains a solid lead in the state's 2nd Congressional District. Maine is one of two states, alongside Nebraska, which awards its electoral votes for each congressional district, in addition to 2 at-large electoral votes for the overall state vote count.

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Trump won the 2nd Congressional District in 2016 and 2020 and leads Harris, 44%-40%, in a full field of candidates. In the state's heavily Democratic 1st Congressional District, Harris leads Trump, 56%-36%, in a full field, according to the poll.

Maine's at-large electoral votes are considered "likely Democratic" by the Cook Political Report. The state's 1st Congressional District is considered "solid Democratic," while the state's 2nd Congressional District is considered "likely Republican."