US economy's fate hangs on jobs report as Fed decides how deep cuts will go

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Are you ready for some football?! The NFL season kicks off tonight with the reigning Super Bowl Champions/Taylor Swift's favorite team, the Kansas City Chiefs, playing the Baltimore Ravens. If you're like many Americans, you might be placing a bet on the action. I wrote about why sports gambling's rise has also made it a bit weird .

In today's big story, where the US economy is headed could finally be answered with Friday's jobs report .

What's on deck:

• Markets: Nvidia investors should be focused on these two numbers .
• Tech: This healthcare startup's got a VC CEO doing whatever it takes for it to succeed .
• Business: Inside America's wildest — and most lucrative — lawsuits .

But first, one data point to rule them all.

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The big story

All eyes on jobs

It's so close you can almost taste it.

The Federal Reserve is finally on the precipice of cutting interest rates. We're less than two weeks out from the Fed's September 18 meeting where the central bank is set to provide Americans with some much-needed relief.

But one hurdle remains between now and then: Friday's job report.

While the data won't jeopardize the central bank's decision to cut rates, it will help it decide how deep it will go. More broadly, a weak or strong report will also provide color on whether the economy is headed toward a soft or crash landing , write Business Insider's Juliana Kaplan, Madison Hoff, and Ayelet Sheffey.

The last jobs report before the Fed's decision was always bound to be a big one. But August's report became even more important after how things went last go around.

Unemployment unexpectedly jumped to 4.3% and fewer jobs were added than economists expected in July's report. Coupled with some weak manufacturing data and shaky earnings, the stock market started melting down .

Ultimately, the market was able to rally back. But the fear of the US slipping into a recession still remains. Friday's job report could go a long way in dispelling those fears or emboldening them.

Regardless of Friday's report, it's important to remember cutting interest rates won't create economic miracles.

If unemployment spikes for a second month in a row, the Fed could offer a deeper rate cut than the typical 25 basis points. But it takes time for the effects of the policy to work its way through the economy.

Bigger also isn't necessarily better when it comes to rate cuts. If the Fed believes it needs to take drastic measures, that's a bad sign for the state of the economy. And don't expect rate cuts to send stocks soaring .

I don't blame you if you're sick of this back-and-forth economy. Experts have waffled to and fro about where things are headed for more than a year.

But at least Friday represents the end of the tunnel. The question is if it'll be bright or dark.

News brief

Top headlines

• Elon Musk tweeted something even he can't defend .
• Longtime Unilever media exec Luis Di Como is leaving amid a broader shake-up of the business .
• Russia built a secret trade channel with India, leaked documents show.
• Meet the professor who just won the Millennium Technology Prize — and $1.1 million.
• A top New York official was paid off by China with salted ducks, a job for her cousin, and millions to her husband's business: DOJ.
• Barron Trump is going to NYU .

3 things in markets

1. Nvidia's two all-important numbers. After a volatile few days of trading, technical analysts are looking at the psychological $100 level and then the 200-day moving average , which is just below $90. If Nvidia's share price drops below the latter, "NVDA's market leadership status may be lost," LPL technical strategist Adam Turnquist told BI.
2. The latest casualty of AI: Oil prices. Goldman Sachs analysts believe the tech will improve logistics and boost oil recovery. Even with the higher demand to power AI, the increased supply will drive prices down over the next decade . But the "Dr. Doom" economist sees oil prices going the other way amid deepening conflicts in the Middle East .
3. The road to November will be rocky for stocks. Market vet Ed Yardeni sees market "choppiness" in the lead up to the US presidential election. But don't worry. Record highs could be back on the menu, depending on how things go .

3 things in tech

1. The weirdest startup in healthcare has a blank check from a top VC firm. Usually, startups must fight tooth and nail to prove they're worthy of investors' attention. The healthcare startup Commure has an unusual advantage: its cofounder is the CEO of General Catalyst. He'll do whatever it takes to see the startup win.
2. How to survive online in the age of AI. AI models and chatbots are changing how online information is consumed, affecting website traffic. In order to stay relevant in this new digital ecosystem, website owners need speed and exclusive "frontier content" their viewers can't get anywhere else.
3. Apple and Meta can't stop fighting over who's in charge of protecting the kids. Everyone and their mother is mad at Mark Zuckerberg's company for contributing to the youth mental health crisis. Meta says it should be up to the App Store to verify users' ages, but Apple won't budge .

3 things in business

1. You may be entitled to financial compensation. Mass torts allow hundreds of thousands of people to seek damages for harm caused by things like asbestos, contaminated water, or carcinogenic baby powder. Here's how they took over America's courts .
2. ESPN's Big Apple betting dreams. The sports network is launching ESPN Bet in New York as football season begins. Though the betting app may be regaining some momentum, it's going to be tough to beat FanDuel and DraftKings.
3. Andreessen Horowitz says adios to Miami. The VC firm has reportedly abandoned its South Florida office just two years into a five-year lease, a sign that the recent tech and crypto migration to Miami may be short-lived.

In other news

• You don't have to be a millionaire to retire before 50, an accountant says. Here's how she did it .
• Why 'fake heiress' Anna Sorokin, quietly released from house arrest, can compete in 'Dancing With the Stars' with an ankle monitor.
• Raising Cane's just offered a rare glimpse into its finances — and the chicken-finger giant is growing like crazy .
• This leaked 2007 DoubleClick pitch deck is set to play a central role in Google's blockbuster adtech antitrust trial .
• George R. R. Martin criticized the changes made by 'House of the Dragon' in a quickly deleted blog post .
• Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky says women founders say they can't go 'founder mode' like men and that it needs to change .

What's happening today

• Court hearing in Donald Trump's Jan. 6 case after Supreme Court ruled acts covered by presidential immunity.
• Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) begins.

The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.