Get updates delivered to you daily. Free and customizable.
Markets Insider
7 top stocks that can thrive whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins this fall
By James Faris,
2 days ago
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are in an increasingly tense fight for the White House.
Stocks broadly have climbed under each party's leadership, but certain sectors may fare differently.
Oppenheimer shared an election investing playbook, including seven stocks set to hold up either way.
Last night's contentious debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris brought the looming presidential election fully into the mainstream, even for those who've been trying to block it out.
However, strategists at Oppenheimer Research believe those who ignore the election — and the implications that electing Trump or Harris may bring — do so at their peril.
"This playbook is intended to help investors navigate trading dynamics around the elections," Oppenheimer strategists wrote in a September 9 note. "Over the longer term, we expect stocks' behavior will more likely be a function of broader market/industry-level trends and individual company performance."
7 stocks that can succeed, no matter who wins this fall
Anyone antsy about this fall's elections should target two types of stocks that Oppenheimer researchers believe will hold up no matter what, provided that economic growth continues: business development companies, and semiconductor firms.
So-called BDCs, which invest in the debt or equity of smaller companies, are more reliant on a healthy economy and labor market than the particular policies of Republicans or Democrats. Any party that can keep this economic expansion going would be celebrated by these firms.
"We don't think the BDCs would benefit from a sweep by either party as BDCs try to diversify their portfolio in order to lower risk," Oppenheimer strategists wrote. "BDCs focus on US companies, so policies that promote domestic growth would benefit the group."
Oppenheimer highlighted a quintet of companies with a track record of minimal credit losses and solid returns on equity, given that credit risk is often the chief downfall of BDCs.
The firm also spotlighted a pair of chipmakers, given heightened interest in artificial intelligence .
Democrats and Republicans seem to have similar policies regarding China, as they've taken steps to limit that country's access to high-end US chips due to national security concerns. Therefore, a victory by either party may have a similar outcome for this industry.
"We expect US foreign policy toward China to become more restrictive over the next four years, irrespective of who wins the election," Oppenheimer strategists wrote. "Related, the Biden administration passed the CHIPS Act in 2022 to provide $53 billion in funding to assist in the development and manufacturing of domestic semiconductors. Both parties are likely to support continued investments in a domestic semiconductor ecosystem."
Below are seven stocks with an outperform rating from Oppenheimer analysts and can survive regardless of whether Republicans or Democrats emerge victorious this fall. Along with each company is its ticker, market capitalization, group, price target, upside, and thesis.
Thesis : "We estimate that Ares can earn an 11% return on equity, and given an estimated cost of equity capital of 9.75%, we calculate a fair value of $22.00/share, or 1.1x book value."
Thesis : "We estimate that Golub can earn a 10% ROE, and given an estimated cost of equity capital of 9%, we calculate a fair value of $17.00/share, or 1.1x book value."
Thesis : "We estimate that OBDC can earn a 9.5% ROE, and given an estimated cost of equity capital of 9%, we calculate a fair value of $16.00/share, or 1.04x book value."
Source: Oppenheimer
5. Sixth Street Specialty Lending
Ticker : TSLX
Market cap : $2B
Group : Business Development Companies
Price target and upside : $23; 9.2%
Thesis : "We estimate TSLX can earn a 12% ROE, and given an estimated cost of equity capital of 9%, we calculate a fair value of $23.00, or 1.34x book value."
Thesis : "We see NVDA as the best-positioned semiconductor name in artificial intelligence. NVDA dominates the AI accelerator market with their current generation Hopper GPUs (H100 and H200). We expect NVDA to retain/expand its market leadership with the launch of its Blackwell architecture and rack-scale NVL36 and NVL72 SKUs later this year. … We expect NVDA's market position to continue whether Republicans or Democrats sweep the election."
Thesis : "The second-largest volume producer of AI accelerators, after NVDA, AVGO has produced GOOG's TPU for the last decade-plus. The chipmaker holds more than 75% share in the burgeoning custom compute accelerator market, supporting ASIC development projects at the world's largest CSPs/enterprises."
I did't need to see the debate ...I've been to the grocery store , the gas station , paid electric bills , insurance , etc for the last 4 years . I know the difference and YOU do too. The debate is over. TRUMP 2024 🇺🇲💯
KAA1
13h ago
Angel number 47 meaning Trump 1.seal the border, 2.Carry out the largest deportation in American history, 3.End inflation, 4.Make America the dominant energy producer, 5.Stop outsourcing,and turn America into a manufacturing superpower, 6.Large tax cuts for workers, and no tax on tips, 7.Defend our Constitution, bill of rights, and our fundamental freedoms, including freedom of speech, freedom of religion and the right to bear arms, 8.Prevent WWIII, restore peace in Europe and the middle east, and build an iron dome missile defense system (all made in America), 9.End the weaponization of government against the American people, 10.Stop migrant crime epidemic, crush foreign drug cartels, crush gang violence, and lock up violent offenders, 11. Rebuild our cities and make them safe again, 12.Strengthen and modernize our military, 13.Keep the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, 14.Fight for and protect social security and Medicare with no cuts, including no change to retirement age.
Get updates delivered to you daily. Free and customizable.
It’s essential to note our commitment to transparency:
Our Terms of Use acknowledge that our services may not always be error-free, and our Community Standards emphasize our discretion in enforcing policies. As a platform hosting over 100,000 pieces of content published daily, we cannot pre-vet content, but we strive to foster a dynamic environment for free expression and robust discourse through safety guardrails of human and AI moderation.