But that seems to be changing, based on a Tuesday note from JPMorgan chief global equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas.
While Lakos-Bujas didn't update his firm's year-end S&P 500 price target of 4,200, which implies a steep 27% decline from current levels, he did recommend investors turn less bearish on the market.
"We are neutralizing our long Defensive and short Cyclicals view," Lakos-Bujas said.
"Policy support from the world's largest economies are coming at a time of surprisingly resilient US growth with tight labor markets, ongoing government deficit spending, and record highs across equities, credit, and housing," Lakos-Bujas said.
According to data from the Federal Reserve, US consumers have about $185 trillion in assets, made up mostly of stocks and bonds, homes, and cash, and just $21 trillion in debts. That's a healthy balance sheet.
Lakos-Bujas is also encouraged by solid corporate earnings growth, which is expected to accelerate from 3% over the past two years to 12% over the next two years.
"US corporates have been increasingly focused on recycling pre-tax income into investment spending rather than returning after-tax profits to shareholders through buybacks, which is also helping to stimulate the economy," Lakos-Bujas explained.
Part of that has been driven by the AI tech boom, with mega-cap tech companies expected to accelerate their R&D and capex investments to more than $500 billion per year.
"In our view, these drivers, along with US Exceptionalism, are helping offset the uneven macro weakness," Lakos-Bujas said.
He added: "While it is too soon to assume that this is a turning point, it does suggest that a recession is unlikely in the near term, especially since surprisingly strong job growth and a downtick in the unemployment rate broke a slowing trend in the job market."
But Lakos-Bujas didn't turn completely bullish on stocks. The strategist warned that the November Presidential election could inject volatility into markets depending on the outcome, and lower interest rates could represent a headwind for corporate profits, particularly in the financial sector.
As long as the Federal Reserve Board and Treasury Secretary Yellen are printing money like crazy and shoveling it to stock market speculators the markets and their own personal portfolios will benefit but eventually middle class taxpayers will receive the bailout bill when the party ends.
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