Trump Is Still Solid Favorite to Win Presidency According to Nate Silver

(AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Despite Democrats’ improving morale, elections analyst and political commentator Nate Silver’s model still suggests that Republican nominee Donald Trump is the favorite to win this year’s presidential election.

According to the model, Trump has 61.3% of winning the Electoral College while Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has just a 38.1% chance of prevailing. The model works by running 40,000 simulations of the election based on current polling trends as well as other underlying factors.

The model also found, however, that Harris is narrowly favored (53.5%) to win the popular vote, as Democrats have in the two previous elections in which Trump was the GOP standard bearer.

“Harris is a popular vote favorite and an Electoral College underdog—but much less of an underdog than Biden,” observed Silver on X (formerly Twitter).

When Silver unveiled the model last month, it found that Trump had a 65.7% chance of winning the Electoral College, while President Joe Biden had just a 33.7% chance.

“Here’s our headline: the presidential election isn’t a toss-up,” wrote Silver at the time. “If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied. So if we’re being honest, pundits who obsess over whether Biden is 1 point ahead in national polls are kind of missing the point.”

Despite Silver’s finding that Trump remains the favorite, there have been encouraging signs for Harris as her impressive fundraising haul points toward building enthusiasm among the Democratic base and one poll released on Tuesday showed her with a 4-point lead over Trump in the pivotal battleground state of Pennsylvania.