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‘Could Be Everything’: Pollster Frank Luntz Says RFK Could Easily Win Trump Swing States And ‘Make the Difference’ In November
By Zachary Leeman,
16 days ago
Pollster Frank Luntz argued Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of former President Donald Trump could easily be enough to push him over the edge in critical swing states that will decide the election.
Luntz spoke with NewsNation’s Leland Vittert on Friday about Kennedy’s announcement he was throwing his support behind Trump after running a longshot independent presidential campaign.
Luntz noted Kennedy’s support has steadily dropped since Vice President Kamala Harris moved to the top of the Democratic Party ticket, but his small following is still enough in a race where only thousands of votes in a handful of states could decide the election.
“It’s probably worth about 1% for Trump and that 1% could be everything if it’s in the swing states. In the end, the reason why Kennedy was drawing 10, 12, even as high as 14% is because he was taking votes away from Joe Biden. Joe Biden’s gone. Kamala Harris has replaced him, and [RFK’s] vote collapsed down to about 4 or 5% and what’s left is a Trump vote,” Luntz said.
He noted that polling shows it’s likely that remaining Kennedy voters will jump over to voting for Trump, if they participate in November at all.
“Some of them are simply not going to participate in November. Roughly two to one, the ones who are remaining will vote for Trump over Harris and that’s worth a single percent and that single percent can make the difference in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin,” he said.
During the interview, Luntz also knocked the media, arguing that Kennedy’s potential impact is being downplayed based on the candidate he endorsed.
“If he had endorsed Harris, I do think he would be regarded as a hero but because he endorsed Trump, the people who are communicating that are not giving him the credit that he deserves, and I think we have to be careful in the last 73 days of this election campaign to understand the motivations of the people providing us information,” he said.
VITTERT : I think we start with what’s on the screen right now, which is the RFK endorsement of Donald Trump. At one point, the RFK vote was, what, ten, fifteen points? Now it’s down to four? Is this is this going to really make a difference?
LUNTZ : It will and it won’t. It’s probably worth about 1% for Trump, and that 1% could be everything if it’s in the, all the swing states.
In the end, the reason why Kennedy was strong 10, 12, even as high as 14% is because he was taking votes away from Joe Biden. Joe Biden is gone. Kamala Harris has replaced him, and his vote collapsed down to about 5, 4% or 5%. And what’s left is a Trump vote. Some of them are simply not going to participate in November. Roughly 2 to 1.
The ones who are remaining will vote for Trump over Harris. And that’s worth a single percent. And a single percent can make the difference in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
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