2024 Betting Market Shifted to Trump by Just Four People Dumping in $30 Million

Donald Trump has gained a significant edge over Kamala Harris in a popular betting market despite being neck and neck in the polls. However, the surge may be a manufactured mirage pushed by four accounts dumping $30 million behind the former president.

Over the last few weeks, Trump’s chances of retaking the White House in November have skyrocketed on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market. He currently leads Harris with a 62% chance of winning next month against her 38%.

Previously, the candidates were nearly tied at the start of October, but a report by the Wall Street Journal indicates Trump’s sudden surge may be due to manipulation.

Per the WSJ, four accounts have collectively moved approximately $30 million into bets favoring a Trump victory.

“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said blockchain analyst

, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence. The report also suggests that the bets could be an influence campaign designed to spread online excitement for Trump.

The WSJ reported that Polymarket is now investigating the activity of its election market predictor with the help of an outside firm.

Online prediction markets and apps allow users to wager money on certain future events as the prices reflect how the market views the probabilities of those outcomes. Prediction markets, however, do not have a record for being reliable, although, Polymarket did correctly predict Joe Biden would drop out of the race.

Per WSJ:

The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month.

The accounts have plowed most of their money into straightforward bets on Trump’s winning the presidency, but they have also put millions of dollars into bets that he will win such swing states as Pennsylvania, as well as long-shot bets on Trump’s winning the popular vote—smaller side markets also available on Polymarket.

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