Unpacking why the Memphis Grizzlies' historical 3-point struggles must change

Memphis Grizzlies coach Taylor Jenkins caught on to the wave. The NBA was changing, and the Grizzlies didn’t want to be left behind.

Memphis adopted a “let it fly” mentality that encouraged many players on the roster to shoot 3-pointers. Not just guards like Desmond Bane or Luke Kennard, but even previous Memphis centers like Xavier Tillman Sr. and Steven Adams had the green light to let it rip whenever they were open from deep.

The results of that strategy have not been as kind to Memphis as others. Memphis finished in the top five this past season in 3-point attempts, but ranked at the bottom of the league in percentage.

In other words, Memphis had the right idea, but now it has to execute. That’s in part why the Grizzlies drafted Jaylen Wells and Cam Spencer in the second round of the 2024 NBA draft.

Inside the Memphis Grizzlies' shooting history

Memphis is known for its grit-and-grind mentality. While most people associate that with the team’s ruggedness and the city's gritty nature, there’s a dark side of that conversation that often gets left out. One reason Grizzlies basketball has been associated with grit is because there hasn’t been a lot of flashiness or beautiful parts to watch.

The 3-point shot is one of the NBA’s most aesthetically pleasing things, and that hasn’t been a strength in Memphis since the George W. Bush administration.

The Grizzlies have not finished in the top 10 of 3-point shooting since the 2006-07 season. Since then, their highest finish is 15th, but many of those years have been spent in the bottom third. In Jenkins' five seasons, Memphis has finished inside the top 20 only one season, and that was 17th during the 56-win campaign in 2021-22.

Recent NBA history explains 3-point significance

There is a correlation between winning and 3-point success. In 2023-24, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics finished with the top two 3-point percentages. Both teams finished with the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences, and the Celtics won the NBA championship.

Since the 2014-15 season, when point guard Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors took the NBA by storm with elite 3-point shooting and increased volume, there’s been a noticeable trend. In the past 10 seasons, the NBA champion has finished an average of fifth in 3-point percentage. That average would be higher if not for the 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers, who are the only champion in that run to not end the season in the top 10 (21st). The eventual champion finished top four in 3-point shooting in seven of the past 10 seasons, including the past three.

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Can the Grizzlies improve their shooting?

Can the current Grizzlies roster make the jump to solidify themselves into championship contention? It’s going to take some career years from key players. Bane and Vince Williams Jr. are the only current rostered players who shot above league average (.366) on 3-pointers last season on decent volume. If Memphis re-signs Kennard, he’d be the third player. Santi Aldama is known as a stretch forward, but he’s only made 33.3% of his 3-point attempts to date.

Jaren Jackson Jr., Marcus Smart and Ja Morant are all likely starters for Memphis, but none have career averages of better than 35% on 3-pointers. When factoring in the possibility of rookie first-round pick Zach Edey starting at center, Memphis likely would have Bane and four players below league average on 3-point accuracy in its starting group.

Memphis likely will get better shooting from its bench with the potential return of Kennard to go with Williams, Aldama and Wells, but career years from the starters could be the key to a real shift from West contention to championship threat.

Damichael Cole is the Memphis Grizzlies beat writer for The Commercial Appeal. Contact Damichael at damichael.cole@commercialappeal.com . Follow Damichael on X, formerly known as Twitter, @DamichaelC.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Unpacking why the Memphis Grizzlies' historical 3-point struggles must change