Why Some Experts Think iPhone 16 Sales Might Be in Trouble

The iPhone 16 is arguably the biggest launch Apple has seen in recent years, with groundbreaking new features such as the forthcoming Apple Intelligence , upgraded camera controls and better sensor functionality , an all-new action button, and a slew of eye-popping new colors. Yet, preliminary factors suggest that demand may be down for the new models, less than two weeks after they were unveiled.

Per Quartz , analysis of pre-orders by Jefferies released Wednesday found that while demand is slowly beginning to improve in the United States, it still falls below the iPhone 15 launch in 2023. In an analysis of seven major cities, the investment bank found that delivery times for the iPhone 16 Pro are an estimated two to three weeks.

In comparison, those who ordered an iPhone 15 Pro or Pro Max during last year's launch were expected to wait a minimum wait of four weeks .

In a social media post on Wednesday, TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo likewise pointed out that Apple employees are already being given the go-ahead to purchase the iPhone 16 with their employee discount. "Typically, employees have had to wait several weeks after the release of new iPhone models before being able to buy," Kuo wrote, suggesting that it may be another sign that the early demand is below expectations.

Though, Bloomberg tech correspondent Mark Gurman noted that while the demand clearly has been slow, this isn't the first time Apple employees have been given the option to purchase a new model at the same time as the general public.

Kuo elaborated in a Medium blog post , reporting that the estimated total sales for the iPhone 16 pro series' first weekend pre-order stood at 37 million units, down 12.7 percent from the iPhone 15 pro series during the same period from last year.

However, Kuo believes that the delay in launching Apple Intelligence, which will be available with a beta software update in October with additional features to roll out in the coming months, may also be hurting sales. The feature, touted as a major selling point for the new iPhones, will also only be available on iPhone 15 Pro models or higher.

Finally, Kuo attributed to "intense competition" in China as hurting the overall demand for the iPhone 16, where the resurgence of Huawei had already contributed to a drop in iPhone sales by early 2024. Back in March, Huawei had been anticipated to reclaim its position as the number one smartphone brand in China for the first time in several years.

But while Huawei's comeback was also expected to be significant domestically, it's still unlikely to challenge Apple's overall global shipment volumes to knock the tech giant out of the top spot.

It's also worth noting that the CEO of cell giant T-Mobile has contradicted these claims, telling CNBC his company has been seeing greater demand. We'll have to wait and see how it all plays out in the earnings reports.