Severe weather risks rise Carolinas to New York, tropical storm development risks rise for Florida

Photo byNational Weather Service

It is another day of heat and high humidity over Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England. That isn't exactly breaking news. The difference today is that we are going to bring temperatures up about 5 degrees and that is going to make it a particularly brutal day. We will have sunshine and that will take highs to the low and middle 90s just about everywhere. Dew points will be in the miserable upper 60s to near 70. Thunderstorm risk today is not all that high and other than scattered showers or thunderstorms, most of the area should be rain free.

Photo bystorm prediction center

The Storm Prediction Center is indicating the risk for isolated severe thunderstorms from the southern half of Pennsylvania, Central & Southern New Jersey, and points southward into the Mid Atlantic and Southeastern US. Given the nature of a tropical air mass, some of these isolated storms could produce very heavy rain and localized flash flooding issues as we

Photo bystorm prediction center

We do not see any break in the humidity through Sunday. Overnight it will be very warm and humid with patchy fog. Lows will be mostly in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Urban areas could be slightly warmer. Friday we will see thunderstorm and severe weather risk. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe weather indicated from Eastern Pennsylvania to Central and Southern New Jersey southward into the Mid Atlantic states. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

Photo byNational Weather Service

Friday is going to be another hot and very humid day with sunshine taking highs again into the low and middle 90s. The humidity will make it feel at least 5 degrees higher. Thunderstorms will likely develop and we expect storms to be more widespread Friday. An upper trough moving through the Eastern Plains and Midwest will be approaching and that will act as a trigger mechanism for thunderstorm development late Friday and Friday night.

Photo byTropical Tidbits

Over the weekend we have a cold front that will be approaching and this front is likely to stall out to our west. Ahead of it Saturday it will be another hot and humid day with sunshine taking highs into the low and mid 90s. Dew points Saturday ahead of the front will be ridiculously high, reaching the mid 70s in many locations. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of the front and once again we have severe weather risk. Of the next 3 days I think Saturday will be the day where we have the highest risk for severe weather from Southern New England to the Mid Atlantic states. I suspect the Storm Prediction Center might eventually add a slight risk zone. The stalled front will bring another round of showers and possible thunderstorms during Sunday. Temperatures will be a little lower with highs mostly in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees though dew points will remain stubbornly high. The frontal boundary is going to be important regard the the potential for a tropical cyclone to develop in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico or possibly in the Southwestern Atlantic along the East Coast of Florida. The overnight GFS model shows a very bullish outcome with a developing tropical storm or hurricane in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico bring risks to Florida and eventually the Southeast US early next week. Other models however are not quite as bullish with development at this time but I think this situation is rather fluid and needs to be monitored carefully. The National Hurricane Center is indicating a 60 percent chance of tropical cyclone development over the weekend.