Potential new tropical storm could bring heavy rains Florida, Georgia & Coastal Carolinas

Photo byNational Weather Service Satellite Loop

A tropical wave continues to move west northwestward over the Greater Antilles. The mountainous terrain of the big islands of the Caribbean is inhibting this system from developing. However this system is forecast to emerge into the Florida Straits and then into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Once it reaches open waters, upper air conditions are conducice for strengthening. This system could become a tropical depressiion or a tropical storm later in the weekend.

Photo byTropical Tidbits

This system is going to be slow moving because of weak upper air steering winds in the Gulf of Mexico and over the Southeast US. The proximity of the developing center to the west coast of Florida could inhibit strengthening to some extent. At the moment it seems that Florida, particularly the west coast of Florida could see tropical storm conditions developing during Sunday. Heavy rain is likely to be the bigger issue.

Photo byweather prediction center

The Weather Prediction Center of the National Weather Service is forecasting 5 to 7 inches of rain over Florida. It is also forecasting similar amounts for coastal Georgia and the Carolinas. This system is likely to cross North Florida and emerge off the coast of Georgia early next week.

Photo byNational Hurricane Center

Hurricane model guidance shows the system moving northwest off the West Coast of Florida and then emerging on the other side. The spread of the models is not terribly wide from the easternmost track to the westernmost track so this leads to a higher degree of confidence in the outlook at this early stage. Some of the models show this system strengthening to a hurricane as it straddles along the Southeast US coastaline from Georgia to North Carolina. We will be monitoring the situation closely in the coming days and additional information can be found at the National Hurricane Center website.