Severe weather risks loom next 2 days Northeast as Debby is a possibility in some form late week

Photo bystorm prediction center

While Hurricane Debby moves across Northern Florida today, we are sitting in the steam bath today though it isn't quite as bad as we saw last week. Today over Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England it is going to be a hot humid day. Thunderstorm activity however is probably going to minimal unless you are north of Route 84. This is where the Storm Prediction Center has elevated risk for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and tonight. The area covers much of Northern Ohio, Northern Pennsylvania, much of Upstate NY and interior New England as far north as Maine. As for temperatures here, sunshine should take highs into the upper 80s and lower 90s this afternoon. We will throw in the chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm but activity should be far less than the last several days.

Photo byNational Weather Service

Across the Northeast we have a west northwest flow in the upper atmosphere and that puts us inline for short wave troughs to move along creating thunderstorms and severe weather issues. Tuesday we see the severe weather area shifting southward as a cold front approaches from the northwest. More cloud cover Tuesday will help to hold temperatures down somewhat.

Photo byNational Weather Service

Highs Tuesday afternoon will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s north of NYC in the Hudson Valley and New England while Southeast Pennsylvania and Central New Jersey southward will be in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms will develop later in the afternoon and continue on and off Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Photo bystorm prediction center

Severe weather risk is on the table once again for late Tuesday into Wednesday morning as a cold front presses southward. The Storm Prediction Center is indicating a marginal risk for severe weather and I think there is a chance we could see an area of slight risk added come Tuesday. The front is going to initially shield us from Hurricane Debby as that storm takes a very uncertain course through the Southeastern US.

Photo byTropical Tidbits

The front stalls just to our south Wednesday and we are leaning to the idea of the European and Icon models regarding Debby as the track that the model forecast seems to make more sense than the GFS which has been lingering the storm in the Southeast US and basically leaving it there. This idea brings heavy rain to the Southeast US of up to 20 inches over the next 2 days. A second cold front will approach from the west and that will create an alley way of sorts for Debby to move up the East Coast in some fashion There is a ton of uncertainty here and we may not know for another couple of days on how this ultimately plays out.

Photo byNational Weather Service

Clouds and leftover showers and thunderstorms Wednesday will bring us a much needed temperature break and highs will only be in the 70s area wide. Thursday and Friday will hinge on what Debby does so we will hold off on a specific forecast other than to say that should Debby follow the models and move northward and then northeastward up the coast, it will bring some wind and heavy rain late in the week or possibly even into the weekend.