The remnant low that was Tropical Storm Debby continues to track northward. The low center is moving through Central Pennsylvania and will turn eastward across Upstate NY and Northern New England. This means the heaviest rain will track well to the west with flash flood issues from Central and Western Pennsylvania to Central and Northeastern NY and Northern New England. For areas on the east side of the low track showery rains and thunderstorms will occur and there is elevated severe weather risk from Southeast Virginia northward through Maryland, Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, much of the Hudson Valley and the Catskills, northeastward into New England.
We also have elevated tornado risk. The atmosphere east of the low track is very unstable and tropical air continues to surge northward. The rotation of the low itself stands out on satellite and radar loops and it is in cases like this that we see tornadoes popping up. The is elevated from Eastern Virginia to Northwest New England and that includes all the major urban centers from Washington DC to New York City.
As far as rainfall is concerned, Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England will be dealing with showery rains and heavy downpours from time time as well as some thunderstorms so rainfall amounts can be tricky. Some places could see under half an inch. Some places could see an inch and half. It all depends on how a band of thunderstorms sets up later this afternoon and evening. On the other hand north and west of the coast, it is not impossible that we could see 2 to 3 inch or higher amounts so while there is localized flash flood risk, it is not enough to issue flood watches for areas closer to the coast. We do have wind advisories posted for gusty southerly winds especially along coastal areas of New Jersey and Long Island that could reach 40 mph or higher.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and head eastward this evening. There will be severe storms in the mix. Temperatures today will reach the mid 70s to lower 80s as temperature rise ahead of the front. Then the front passes offshore Skies will clear out late tonight leading to a nice sunny day developing. Humidity levels will dive and we are in for a delightful stretch of weather over the weekend.
The humidity will be down as dew points drop to the low 50s and even some upper 40s making for very reasonable humidity. Highs will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. We can say the same for Sunday which will be a nice sunny day with highs again in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Next week we see a low humidity pattern setting up for much of the weekend. Other than a weak cold front and upper trough coming through late Tuesday or Tuesday night, much of next week should be rain free. We see the tropics revving up next week as another tropical storm is likely to form in the Tropical Atlantic and it is forecast to head westward. It is way too early to say anything regarding track of if there will be any impacts.
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