Ernesto dumping rain on Puerto Rico, could be a risk to Atlantic Canada, US East Coast looks safe

This week we have seen what happens in a northwest flow in the Northeast in August. The air at the surface has been dry but the air aloft has been on the cold side and this creates a bit of instability. Weak upper troughs moving along in the flow set off some widely scattered showers or even a thunderstorm but for most people today it will be no worse than partly sunny. Most highs will be in a range of 80 to 85. Dew points main in the 50s so humidity levels remain low. The vast majority of you will probably not see any raindrops today.

Photo byNational Weather Service

We continue to move along for the rest of the week with reasonable humidity and seasonal temperatures. Skies tonight should clear with most lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Thursday we see sunshine and high temperatures again in a range of 80 to 85 for highs. The upper air will be a bit more stable Thursday so we are not mentioning the chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

Photo byNational Weather Service

Friday will be the last day of this low humidity reasonable temperature pattern as the upper flow in the Eastern US goes from northwest to south ahead of another cold front and upper trough for the weekend. Friday itself will see sunshine and highs in the low to middle 80s. Clouds will begin to roll in Friday night as the next cold front approaches.

Photo byTropical Tidbits

The weather front approaching over the weekend will be slowing down. This is because another upper trough in Eastern Canada is pulling away to the east and that opens an alley way for soon to be Hurricane Ernesto tracks northward off shore the US East Coast. Ernesto is bringing torrential rains to Puerto Rico today and will strengthen to a hurricane once the center clears Puerto Rico and heads into the Atlantic.

Photo byNational Hurricane Center

Ernesto will likely pass close to Bermuda Friday night into Saturday morning and then move north northeastward. It could come close to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland so people who live in Atlantic Canada should keep abreast of developments with Ernesto. For the East Coast we will see rough surf developing at area beaches this weekend. Until Ernesto gets out of the way the front cannot pass through.

This leaves us with clouds around this weekend with showery rains from time to time. It won't rain every minute but there will be some wet weather to deal with. Clouds and a south wind will impact temperatures as most highs will reach into the 80s and humidity levels will be high making for muggy conditions. Sunday is pretty much a repeat performance of Saturday with clouds around, showery rains, and muggy conditions.

We will probably see the cold front lingering into Monday and perhaps even Thursday so there is shower risk for the start of next week. Ernesto will play a role in this. Once Ernesto turns northeast into the open waters of the Atlantic it will allow the traffic jam in the atmosphere to break up and get weather systems to start moving again from west to east.