Damaging thunderstorm risks rise Northeast & Midwest US next three days as heatwave expands eastward

STATES AFFECTED MIDWEST: IOWA, MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN, NORTHERN ILLINIOS, NEBRASKA, SOUTH DAKOTA

STATES AFFECTED NORTHEAST: VIRGINIA, MARYLAND, DELWARE, PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, EASTERN NY, CONNECTICUT, MASSACHUSETTS, RHOIDE ISLAND, VERMONT, NEW HAMSHIRE, WESTERN MAINE.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST MONDAY AUGUST 26, 2024 ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTERPhoto bystorm prediction center

This is going to be a busy stretch of severe weather across the US thanks to an expanding heatwave across the Midwest and Plains into the Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast. The next three days through Wednesday August 28th will see large areas of risk as defined by the Storm Prediction Center. The map above shows the risk zones for Monday August 26th. The area of enhanced risk has an elevated risk for tornadoes.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST TUESDAY AUGUST 27, 2024 ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTERPhoto bystorm prediction center

Tuesday August 27 the risk area shifts to the Great Lakes From Wisconsin to Michigan extendedng southward into Northern Illinois, Northern Indiana & Northern Ohio. The area across Wisonsin 8 Michigan is also under an elevated tornado risk. Wednesday August 28th could be the most interesting weather day for parts of the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic states

SEVERE WEATHER RISK FORECAST WEDNESDAY AUGUST 28, 2024 ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTERPhoto bystorm prediction center

A strong upper trough and weather front will be approaching from the northwest and dropping southward. Severe weather risks run from Michigan and Ohio east to Southern New England. This includes the metro areas of New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washgington DC, Pittsburg, Cleveland, and Detroit. The most vulnerable times will be during the mid afternoon to mid evening hours each day as thunderstorms take advanatage of strong daytime heating and powerful upper air dynamics.

EUROPEAN WEATHER MODEL FORECAST HIGH TEMPERTURES ISSUED MONDAY AUGUST 26, 2024Photo byTropical Tidbits

All of this severe weather is due to an expanding heatwave during the first three days of this week. Widespread high temperatures in the 90s and even some 100 degree plus highs cover much of the Central Plains, the Mississippi, Missouri River, & Ohio Valleys and nudging into the Middle Atlantic & Southeast US. The extreme heat does begin to retreat late this week as a cooler flow from Canada should establish itself in time for the Labor Day holiday weekend.