Yesterday upper trough that brought thunderstorms and severe weather to Connecticut and Long Island and some scattered storms in New Jersey is now gone and we have a short break from shower and thunderstorm risk. Humidity levels are high today and we will see sunshine take high temperatures to the mid 80s to around 90 degrees in some places. Radars will be nice and quiet today and shower/thunderstorm risk is minimal. Things however change for Wednesday as we are in for a very hot and very humid day. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings have gone up for areas from Western Long Island and NYC southwest across New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania. We also have another cold front that will be coming down from the northwest.
Ahead of this weather front, we are going to see temperatures reaching the low and middle 90s. Dew points will be pushing 70 or better so heat indices will reach over 100. High humidity plus strong daytime heat will create a very unstable atmosphere. Thunderstorms will likely develop late in the day and continue into Wednesday night.
The Storm Prediction Center indicates a slight risk for severe weather across a large area extending from Southern New England, west across the Hudson Valley, NYC and Long Island, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland and Northern Virginia. A marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms runs northeast into Southeastern New England, south into Southern Virginia, and west into Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky and Indiana so it covers a very large area of geography.
The high heat and humidity will be a one day affair as a cold front pushes southward and stalls somewhere across Virginia and points westward. High pressure quickly builds in New England and Atlantic Canada creating an onshore northeast flow of air that will cool things down and bring the humidity down as well for both Thursday and Friday.
We should see weather conditions improve Thursday from north to south with decreasing clouds and increasing amounts of sunshine. Thursday highs will be in the 70s in most places though areas in South Jersey and Southeast Pennsylvania will be closer to 80. Friday it will be on the cool side across Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England with sunshine and clouds. Highs will be mostly in the 70s. Humidity levels will be lower both days.
The Labor Day holiday weekend sees another cold front approaching and it will depend on timing. It seems that the front will be a bit slower so Saturday should be a dry day at least through the dayside part. It will turn a little warmer and more humid with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms with a cold front will arrive perhaps overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. This will be followed by a secondary front later Sunday so the middle part of the holiday weekend will have some rain issues. Monday Labor Day is looking very nice as high pressure builds in. Sunshine will return and highs will be just in the 70s with low humidity.
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