Risks rise for SE Texas & Louisiana as new hurricane could form in Gulf of Mexico, Eastern US quiet

We hit bottom this morning with temperatures in the 40s in many inland spots while warmer urban centers finished the night in the low and middle 50s. High pressure is covering much of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and much of the East Coast today. It will be a mostly sunny day. The core of this cool air mass will be moving out today. There is an upper trough moving across upstate New York and we could see some showers and thunderstorms scattered across Western and Central NY. These showers should stay to our north but we could see a few clouds coming into the mix today along with sunshine. A passing shower is possible north of Route 84. Temperatures should rebound a bit this afternoon with highs reaching the low and middle 70s in most areas.

Photo byNational Weather Service

This upper trough moves out tonight and that will leave us with clear skies. Most lows Tuesday morning will be in the 50s inland to near 60 coast and warmer urban locations. Tuesday we will begin to see temperatures rise back to warm late summer levels. Humidity levels however this week will remain subdued all week long as tropical air will remain pinned along the Gulf Coast. The high essentially blocks that moist air from moving northward.

Photo byTropical Tidbits

In the Southwest Gulf of Mexico we have a developing low that continues to slowly get better organized and by the end of the day, we could have a tropical storm there. This system is going to strengthen in the Western Gulf of Mexico and track northward and then northeast offshore. Eventually there is a high probability that this could eventually become a hurricane before landfalling along the coast of Louisiana Wednesday night or early Thursday. Thanks to the large high to the northeast that continues to build at the surface and aloft, the moisture from this will remain in the Gulf States and also eventually spread into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valley.

Photo byTropical Tidbits

Heavy rainfall will likely be an issue from the Texas Coast into Louisiana as well as the Lower and Middle Mississippi River Valleys. 6 to 12 inches or more of rain will be commonplace along and to the east of the track of this potential tropical cyclone. Eventually we will see rain moving as far north as Southern Illinois and Indiana as well as Western Kentucky and Tenneessee.

Photo byweather prediction center

This leaves the areas in the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states in a sweet spot all week long and possibly through next weekend. Sunshine Tuesday will take highs back into the 80s in many locations. Wednesday we will see sunshine and temperatures will be a little warmer as highs reach the low to mid 80s. Thursday and Friday will continue to see sunny skies with high temperatures both days in the 80s,. Over the weekend it looks to be dry with at least some sunshine for both Saturday and Sunday. Eventually a strong high in Eastern Canada will build southward through New England and the Middle Atlantic which will turn the flow more onshore as early as Sunday and early next week. That may lower temperatures somewhat but dew points will remain reasonable through the weekend and no rain is in the forecast for the next 7 days.