Hurricane heads for North Florida, Heavy rain, high winds, tornadoes Florida Georgia, South Carolina

Photo byNational Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm Helene continues to get better organized in the Northwest Caribbean and will head for the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. Hurricane conditions will spread across North Florida from the Panhandle to as far south as Tampa Bay. Tropical storm conditions are forecast to spread northward into Eastern Alabama, all of Georgia and interior South Carolina into Western North Carolina and Tennessee late Thursday and Friday.

Photo byNational Hurricane Center

Hurricane model forecasts continue to show a tight cluster in the tracks with landfall forecast to occur somewhere between Panama City Florida and Cross City Florida on the panhandle. From there the center is forecast to head northward into Western or Central Georgia. This storm however will be different from others as a strong upper air disturbance to the west will likely slow the weakening, enhance heavy rainfalls, and produce what could be a robust severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak.

Photo byNational Hurricane Center

There still remains a spread with the hurricane model and intensity forecasts. Some models have it reaching category 4 strength at landfall (140 mph winds) while others are not as strong showing category 2 or 3 status. Either way this storm poses big issues for inland areas of the Eastern Gulf States and the Southeast US.6

Photo byweather prediction center

Rainfall amounts are substantial and there will be high risk for flash flooding over a large area from Eastern Alabama eastward across all of Georgia, Northern Florida, Northern South Carolina, Western North Carolain and much of Central and Eastern Tennessee. Per the forecast from the Weather Prediction Center of the National Weather Service, rainfall amounts of at least 6 to 12 inches are possible. Gusty winds to 50 mph or more are possible well inland as the storm center tracks into the Southern Appalachains and then arcs westward toward the Tennessee Valley by Friday.