Second major hurricane in 2 weeks heads for West Florida midweek, Tropical Storm Milton Strengthens

Photo byNational Weather Service

Residents on the west coast of Florida from the Florida Big Bend southward to the Keys are monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Milton. Disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico has organized and reached tropical storm strength. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night and head east northeast across the Gulf of Mexico taking dead aim for the Florida west coast. This will be the second hurricane and possibly the second major hurricane to hit the Florida west coast in 2 weeks.

Photo byTropical Tidbits

On the heels of Hurricane Helene which was a category 4 hurricane when it made landfall near Perry Florida back on September 26th. There are noteable differences in the upper air pattern with Milton verses Helene. For one Helene accelerated northward through the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and then through Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina before the center turned west into Tennessee. This was due to a strong upper air system in the Lower Mississippi Valley that steered the storm like a rocket ship. Coupled with an old frontal boundary the result was 2 feet or more of rain in the Carolina mountains and incredble destruction as whole towns were washed away. This storm has a different set up as it is moving west to east and accelerating into the Florida west coast. This will have implications regarding rain and potential storm surge.

Photo byNational Hurricane Center

Hurricane tracking models seem to be mostly clustered around a track east northeast and then northeast with a landfall close to Tampa Florida. Models showing a stronger hurricane (as high as a category 4) are taking northerly tracks while those showing a weaker hurricane are the tracks going further south.

Photo byNational Hurricane Center

The official National Hurricane Center forecast is for Milton to strengthen ot a hurricane and to a major hurricane (115 mph or higher) by Tuesday morning. Landfall will occur during the day Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center has this making landfall as a major hurricane.

Photo byNational Hurricane Center

Milton will cross the state from west to east Wednesday and emerge on the Atlantic side late Wednesday. The future track is to the northeast and that should at least ease concerns for those of you in Georgia, South and North Carolina. This will not be a repeat performance of Helene.

Above is my latest weather video, Weather in 5, which covers not only Tropical Storm Milton but the weather across much of the Eastern US for the rest of the weekend and the week ahead.