Milton strengthening rapidly, Florida preps for the worst case scenario. Severe storms, storm surge

Milton continues to rapidly strengthen as the morning recon found. The chart below plots pressure and wind from the aircraft in Milton. The blue is the wind and you can see it peaks at 105 knots at flight level on the first pass. The pressure in red has fallen close to 950 mb. This is a category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds on a special 7am update.

Photo byTropical Tidbits

We can also begin to see the development of a well defined eye. The satellite presentation is excellent and we expect to see continued strengthening today. Intensity models show category 4 is within reach and some models take it to a category 5 while it is in the Central Gulf of Mexico

Photo byNational Weather Service

Nothing has changed in the outlook for Milton. Landfall looks to be sometime late Wednesday afternoon or evening along the Florida west coast. The zone from just north of Tampa to just south of Fort Myers is the area I would focus on for landfall. There has been little change in the Hurricane Center Forecast. There is no risk to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast from Milton whatsoever as the upper air pattern is all wrong for a storm moving northward.

Photo byNational Hurricane Center

Hurricane and storm surge watches will likely be upgraded to warnings either late today or early Tuesday. Potential for a catastrophic storm surge is for areas to the south of the storm track as south winds ahead of the hurricane will cause water to pile onto the coastline with little relief from low tides.

Photo byweather prediction center

Up to a foot of rain is forecast for Central and North Florida. Rains from the weekend have left the ground saturated so flash flooding from heavy rains could become a big issue as Milton tracks across the state from west to east. Milton will emerge into the Atlantic Thursday and head eastward from there. Heavy rain could reach coastal Georgia and South Carolina which is why we see elevateed flash flood risk. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely south of the track and the Storm Prediction Center has already indicated elevated risk for severe weather in Florida Tuesday and Wednesday.