Tampa, Miami Markets Wildly Overvalued

According to a new piece of research, the residential real estate markets in Tampa and Miami are among the most overvalued in the country. At the same time, they are among the most likely to be damaged by climate change, particularly from rising oceans and hurricanes which are becoming more powerful.

Hurricane Damage –North Caroline Data

Where Is It Hottest? –Over 115 Degrees

The Florida Atlantic University College of Business maintains a database that examines the value of real estate in the nation’s top 100 markets by population. The study uses Zillow valuation data and actual transactions.

Tampa’s Big Premium

The Tampa area is priced at a premium over fair value by 37.73%, while Miami’s premium is 34.70%. Of the top 13 markets based on this metric, eight are in Florida. Many of these cities had population influxes during the COVID-19 pandemic, although some were growing well before that, primarily because people were moving from the Northeast and Midwest for warmer weather and lower taxes.

Part of the reality of the US housing market is that some of the most popular destinations could be partially destroyed within the next several decades. One forecast shows that 60% of Miami could be underwater within four decades.