Before he announced he would not seek re-election, polls showed President Joe Biden bleeding Latino support. At the same time, Republicans were making inroads with Latinos, one of the fastest growing demographics in the country.
But, Vice President Kamala Harris’ entrance into the race appears to have stopped that trend in its tracks, according to new polling.
The latest Equis Research poll found that Harris — with fewer than three months until the election — now seems “on track to hold off a GOP surge.”
“In short: Democrats are back in business,” a memo accompanying the poll said.
However, Harris, who entered the race three weeks ago, still has ground to make up if she is to match the levels of Latino support Biden received in 2020, which helped propel him to victory.
The survey, conducted between July 22 and Aug. 4, sampled 2,183 Hispanic or Latino voters in 12 battleground states. Seven crucial swing states were included: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
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Key findings
The poll found 56% of respondents supported Harris, while 37% supported former President Donald Trump, marking a 19-point lead for the vice president.
In a previous poll conducted between May and June — before Biden withdrew — he led Trump by a much smaller margin, 46% to 41%.
While Harris’ picked up support across numerous subgroups, her largest gains were with young Latino voters.
Sixty percent of Latinos under 40 years old supported Harris, according to the poll. That is up 17 points from Biden’s 43% support.
Among Latina women, Harris received 59% support, which is up from the 50% Biden received in the previous poll. And among Latino men, she saw similar gains, reaching 51% support compared to Biden’s 41%.
Additionally, following Harris’ entrance into the race, more Latino Democrats now say they plan on voting in the November election.
In the poll, more than three-quarters of Democratic Latinos, 78%, said they were “almost certain” to show up to the polls — which is a 5-point increase from June.
Similarly, 79% of Republican Latinos signaled they would definitely vote, which is up 2 points from June.
Comparison to 2020 numbers
Across the battleground states, Harris, despite her bump in support, is still several points shy of the support Biden garnered in 2020. Four years ago, Biden won 65% of the Latino vote , compared to Trump’s 32%, according to NBC News exit polls.
But, the picture looks different depending on the state.
For example, she is about 5 points behind Biden’s 2020 levels in Nevada. Meanwhile, her support in Wisconsin is about on par with Biden’s support from four years ago.
In contrast, Trump is polling ahead of where he was in 2020 among Latinos in swing states.
“Adjusted to two-way vote, with undecideds allocated proportionately, Trump is 4 points ahead of where he ended up in 2020 in these toss-up states,” according to the memo.
In sum, the poll suggests Harris’ campaign has reset the race for Latino support, with her candidacy appearing to have staved off a large Republican upswing.
“In important ways, this race has just begun,” the memo said.
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