Comments by Ross, Herro reinforce internal perception. What must change for Dolphins, Heat

In one important regard, the 21st century Heat and 21st century Dolphins couldn’t be more different. The Heat has won three championships and advanced to seven Finals.

The Dolphins have won one measly playoff game this century (in December 2000) and have the NFL’s longest ongoing drought without a postseason win.

But the parallels between the franchises are stronger than at any time in many years. Both have been bottom-tier playoff seeds during the past two seasons. Both have been beset by injuries to key players.

Both have been big spenders, despite perceptions otherwise about the Heat: The Dolphins’ cash spending in 2024 is fourth in the NFL at $329 million, per spotrac.com. The Heat’s $191 million 2024-25 payroll is sixth.

But the most interesting similarity between the current incarnations of the Dolphins and Heat was reinforced when Dolphins owner Stephen Ross visited the CBS 4 booth during Saturday’s preseason game and shared this view of his team:

“Right now, we have a great roster, and I think everybody has great expectations,” Ross said. “But hey, it’s the old injury bug. You’ve got to make sure that that doesn’t happen like last year. I think without that and we stay healthy, I think we’re certainly a contender for the Super Bowl.”

In that regard, Ross’ thinking very much aligns with the Heat’s.

The Heat’s perception of its team, as explained by people with direct knowledge, is that they have a very good roster that can play with anyone when healthy.

Do they realize Boston is loaded and perhaps the most talented team on paper? Absolutely. They have immense respect for the Celtics and know that everyone in the East is chasing them. But they also know they beat the Celtics in a playoff series 15 months ago.

When they see the rest of the East below Boston, they see teams with whom they can go toe-to-toe.

Does the Heat believe it could use another key player to boost its title chances? Yes. But the organization also believes it has a contender if the roster is healthy and everyone plays to his potential.

“We haven’t been healthy yet,” Heat guard Tyler Herro told Forbes in an interview released Monday. “But when we feel like we do get healthy, we have a very deep team — a team that is deep enough to make a run in the East and ultimately win the NBA title.”

The Dolphins feel similarly, as Ross said in his first public comments about the team this decade.

But is that faith warranted for either team? Perhaps. But it’s not clear cut.

The Dolphins haven’t even won a playoff game with this core.

The Heat has advanced to two Finals with this core but have needed to win play-in elimination games simply to make the past two postseasons and have seen the Celtics, Knicks, Pacers, Cavaliers and others shoot past them since.

Fanduel gives the Dolphins the 12th-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl and gives the Heat the 15th shortest odds, tied with Indiana and Sacramento.

So you could make the case that the Dolphins and Heat are fringe contenders to advance out of their conferences.

But in each case, far more than good health will be needed.

Here’s what else both organizations desperately need:

They need more of their highest-compensated players to justify the faith they’ve shown in them.

Among the highest-paid Dolphins, Tyreek Hill and Jalen Ramsey have justified that faith during their tenures. But others must, too.

Tua Tagovailoa — now the fourth highest-paid quarterback in the league in average annual salary — must play like a quarterback befitting of that salary during the most critical time. Tagovailoa is 10-11 with an 85 passer rating in December and January.

Jaylen Waddle, now a top-10 receiver in average salary, has five catches (in 12 targets) for 75 yards in two playoff games. There must be more.

Bradley Chubb, who has the second-largest Dolphins contract in total value, must come back strong from his torn ACL and make impactful plays in December and January.

Terron Armstead, the sixth-highest paid Dolphin in contract value, must find a way to stay upright and be at his best in January.

New center Aaron Brewer and linebacker Jordyn Brooks, Miami’s highest-priced 2024 free agent pickups, must be the best versions of themselves.

From Byron Jones to Ndamukong Suh to Mike Wallace, the Dolphins under Ross have spent hundreds of millions on players who didn’t always justify the financial outlay.

Here’s the good news: There appear to be more players on this team who seem capable of justifying that faith than any Dolphins team in recent years. But they must prove it.

In the Heat’s case, aside from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, the financial faith displayed in some others simply must bear more fruit. You can point to the inability to add a third star or myriad injuries as factors for why the Heat has been a top four seed only twice in the 10 years since LeBron James left.

But here’s another: Too many of their highest paid players haven’t justified that money – from Kyle Lowry (three years, $85 million) to Tyler Johnson (four years, $50 million) to James Johnson (four years, $60 million) to Dion Waiters (four years, $52 million), to Hassan Whitrside (four years, $98 million).

None made it here to the end of their contracts.

While the four year, $120 million investment in Tyler Herro could be justified and is still the going rate for a young 20-point-a-game scorer, persistent injury issues — including 40 games missed last season - have left Miami waiting to see an All-Star incarnation of Herro. That’s more of a case of bad luck than anything else with Herro, who consistently puts in the time to work on his game.

The Duncan Robinson outlay (five years, $90 million) was followed by a drop in shooting percentage and a decline in playing time, thus making his contract something of an albatross before his renaissance last season.

Now healthy, Terry Rozier must prove worthy of both what was required to acquire him (a precious future first-round pick) and the salary for the next two seasons ($24.9 million, $26.6 million).

Here’s the bottom line: Ross, Dolphins general manager Chris Grier and their Heat counterparts (owner Micky Arison, president Pat Riley) need a bigger payoff from more of the players they have paid handsomely.

If either team makes a long playoff run, good health will be essential. So will be getting what they thought they were paying for from nearly all of their highest-paid employees, not just some of them.