Most likely voters in three swing states believe America is probably on a path toward global war, according to new polling, which found widespread discontentment with U.S. foreign policy.
In the latest poll from the CATO Institute, a libertarian think tank, 59% of likely voters in Wisconsin said they “think it’s likely we’re closely approaching World War III.” In Michigan and Pennsylvania, similar shares said the same — 54% and 51%.
Slight majorities of likely voters in Wisconsin and Michigan — 53% and 52% — said they believe America is “too involved” in conflicts overseas and global affairs. In Pennsylvania, half of likely voters said the same.
Additionally, about six-in-ten likely voters in all three states said “U.S. foreign policy does not put American interests first.”
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The poll, conducted by YouGov between Aug. 15 and 23, sampled 500 adults in each state. It had a margin of error of about five percentage points.
“I am not particularly surprised by these results,” Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, a think tank focused on international security, told McClatchy News.
“They mirror findings from other polls in recent years that suggest that American voters are at least somewhat dissatisfied with U.S. foreign policy choices and would like the United States to move more towards a ‘shared leadership role’ in global affairs,” Ashford said. “Swing state voters don’t seem to be outliers on these questions.”
Foreign policy and the presidential election
About half of likely voters in all three states said they would be less likely to cast their ballot for a presidential candidate who disagreed with their views on foreign policy — even if they agreed with them on other issues.
This finding takes on greater importance as Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are polling neck-and-neck in the three states.
“While foreign affairs issues are almost always far less important than questions related to the economy or domestic affairs, everything can be of significance in such a close election,” James McAllister, a professor of political science at Williams College, told McClatchy News.
Notably, respondents said they trusted Trump more so than Harris on foreign policy by a four-point margin in all three states.
When asked which candidate they believe is most likely to keep Americans out of foreign wars, a slight majority in all three states — between 51% and 52% — said Trump over Harris.
Similarly, when asked which candidate would more likely help bring an end to the Ukraine-Russia war, 54% of likely voters in Michigan said Trump, compared to 46% who said Harris. In Wisconsin, 51% chose Trump, while 49% chose Harris, and in Pennsylvania, likely voters were split 50-50 between the two candidates.
Further, a majority of likely voters in all three states — between 51% and 56% — said they believe Trump is more likely than Harris to make foreign policy choices “based on American interests first.”
Even though some of these responses are within the margin of error, “it should still be a concern for the Harris campaign that she is not perceived more positively on foreign policy than someone with Donald Trump’s exceedingly mixed record,” Ashford said.
Interestingly though, a majority of voters in each state — between 51% and 53% — also said they believe that Trump is more likely than Harris to bring the U.S. into World War III.
“How could voters prefer Trump’s foreign policy but then worry he could instigate a global war? Voters may make a distinction between what a candidate says about policy and how they perceive that candidate’s judgment and impulsivity,” a CATO report accompanying the poll said.
Specific foreign policy issues
Most voters in all three states said they want the U.S. to take on a “shared” role, as opposed to a dominant role, in global leadership.
On the issue of the Ukraine-Russia war, majorities of voters — between 65% and 71% — said they believe it is important to U.S. national security. However, there is disagreement about the funds and munitions being sent to Ukraine.
And after being informed that the U.S. government has already provided Ukraine with $170 billion in equipment and aid, half or more voters — between 50% and 57% — said they want to stop or reduce additional aid.
Additionally, most respondents said they believe the war will devolve into a broader European war — between 54% and 63%.
On the Israel-Hamas war, about 80% of voters in the three states said Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack was “unacceptable.” The same share of voters said they support “an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.”
In the broader Middle East, 80% of voters in these states said they believe the U.S. is incapable of solving the conflicts in the region “even if the country devoted more money, soldiers and resources.”
Lastly, when asked about Taiwan — a potential geopolitical hot-spot — most voters said they believe it’s important to U.S. national security.
However, just a sliver of respondents — between 1% and 3% — said they’d be willing to send troops to Taiwan if China cut off its trade capabilities. And, if China were to invade Taiwan, only between 8% and 9% of voters said they’d favor sending American troops in response.
These figures on Asia and the Middle East “suggest that the appetite for U.S. military intervention in specific cases is extremely low, even when voters express their support broadly for an active foreign policy,” Ashford said.
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