Tropical Storm Francine could become hurricane as two systems churn in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Francine spent most of Tuesday re-organizing after a rough night, and by the afternoon the storm was on a clear path to becoming a hurricane later in the day, ahead of landfall in Louisiana late Wednesday.

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Francine to reach Category 1 status with 90 mph sustained winds just before landfall, a slight downgrade from earlier predictions that called for the hurricane to reach Category 2.

The entire coast of Louisiana remains under a hurricane or tropical storm warning, and half of the Texas coast is under a tropical storm watch or warning. Francine’s winds could push up to 10 feet of storm surge on land in the hardest hit spots in Louisiana, prompting mandatory and voluntary evacuations.

While Francine’s future looks more certain, the same can’t be said for the two disturbances stirring in the Atlantic.

As of the 2 p.m. update Tuesday, the nearest one saw its chances of formation fall to 30% within the next two or seven days, while National Hurricane Center forecasters raised the chances the farther one could strengthen to 80% in the next week.

However, long-range computer models are still a mess with either system. It’s too soon to know if either could be a threat to land, and it will be easier to predict when — or if — one of them develops into a tropical depression.