The eyebrow-raising dynamic that has come to light in Dolphins’ offense

The Dolphins were outscored by 110 points last season against playoff teams, a worse disparity than any NFL team except the woeful Washington Commanders.

An autopsy of those seven games (six of which were losses) reflect some eyebrow-raising realities about this offense.

Here’s one of them:

On plays that coach Mike McDaniel scripted, the Dolphins had some very good moments against good teams.

But when those prescripted plays were finished, the Dolphins offense generally struggled.

And the latter must change when a perennial playoff team, Buffalo, visits Hard Rock Stadium on Thursday night (8:20 p.m., CBS 4, Amazon Prime Video).

McDaniel said last season that he scripts the Dolphins’ first 24 offensive plays, with the flexibility to change based on down and distance and defensive looks.

Here’s how the Dolphins offense fared against playoff teams during the first 24 plays compared with plays that followed:

▪ For the first 24 plays in seven games against playoff teams, Miami averaged 6.0 yards per play.

For all other plays in those games, Miami averaged 5.2 yards per play.

▪ Against playoff teams, Miami had 34 possessions that entirely or mostly featured scripted plays. The Dolphins scored 64 points on those 34 possessions.

Conversely, Miami had 37 possessions that involved no scripted plays (outside the first 24-play cutoff). On those plays, Miami scored 42 points.

So (using an NBA stat), that’s 188 points per 100 Dolphins possessions with drives involving scripted plays, 113 points per 100 possessions otherwise.

The 64 points on 34 possessions (with scripted plays) against playoff teams isn’t great, but it isn’t awful, either. It reflects that in some cases, especially early in the first first Bills, Eagles and Ravens games, McDaniel came out with a game plan that worked.

But 42 points (essentially seven touchdowns) in 37 unscripted possessions — most of that in the second half of those seven games -- isn’t good enough.

So what could be happening here?

Did defenses catch on to what the Dolphins were doing and adjust in the second half?

Did Tua Tagovailoa’s physical limitations, offensive line issues or Miami’s No. 3-5 receivers not getting open hinder Miami in the second half of all of these games, except for the win against Dallas?

All of these factors, and others, likely contributed.

NFL Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner offered this perspective on Miami’s offense on the social media platform X earlier this year:

“No pressure plan! Confusing concepts! Still struggling when having to work beyond #1 read! Tua playing too fast!

“Think they have to reconfigure their pass concepts… continue to build around what they do well, but I feel the structure can be set up better to make it easier to work through progressions that make sense when #1 isn’t there…

“Then maybe that helps Tua to move through progression and not feel he has to make the throw to #1 most of the time (if that’s actually what goes through his mind)!”

Several unscripted possessions were torpedoed by Tagovailoa’s inability to make something out of nothing or prolong drives with his legs.

Among the three quarterbacks who beat the Dolphins to end their season, Josh Allen ran for 57 first downs this season, Lamar Jackson ran for 48 and Patrick Mahomes ran for 27.

Tagovailoa ran for five first downs all season. McDaniel and teammates say he’s more mobile after losing weight; that now needs to translate into more successful rushing attempts when plays break down.

Here’s the bottom line: Forty-two points in 37 possessions is an unwinnable formula. And that’s the extent of Miami’s production against good teams when the Dolphins were done running McDaniel’s prescripted plays.

The good news? Miami was first in yards per game, first in passing yards per game and second (behind only Dallas) in points per game.

If the Dolphins can get half of that production on unscripted plays against good teams, there’s a decent chance they would have won the AFC East.

Players say there will be changes in the offense; perhaps that will help. Jonnu Smith’s addition certainly will help, though he wasn’t a big factor in Sunday’s season-opening win against Jacksonville.

“There should be quite a few differences” injured running back Raheem Mostert said, indicating some of them will be created by Smith’s addition.

Fullback Alec Ingold said, “We are testing the limits of this offense” with new wrinkles.

They will need better production against a Bills team that has topped 25 points against the Dolphins in 10 of their last 12 meetings.