Hurricane Helene set to slam Florida Gulf Coast with Cat 4 winds, surge up to 20 feet

Hurricane Helene is now expected to make landfall in Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 4 storm on Thursday night, bringing 100+ mph winds inland to the state capital of Tallahassee and up to 20 feet of storm surge to portions of the Gulf Coast.

On its way, the powerful hurricane is set to slash the majority of the state with high winds and rain — including Miami-Dade and Broward County, which were under storm warnings.

Helene entered the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane Wednesday morning. By late afternoon, forecasters predicted it will explode into a powerful Category 4 hurricane with winds of at least 130 mph in just over 24 hours.

As Helene shoots through the Gulf, it’s expected to bring massive amounts of life-threatening storm surge to nearly the entire west coast. The peak has been rising all day, and forecasters now expect up to 20 feet of storm surge above ground in the Big Bend area. But damaging levels will be felt further south, including up to 8 feet above ground in the Tampa Bay area.

Mandatory evacuations have been called for at least 17 West Coast counties, with voluntary or partial evacuations in several more. FEMA approved Florida’s request for a disaster declaration, unlocking cash help for residents and governments after the storm, and began pre-placing aid and staff on Tuesday to prepare for the hit.

“All but three counties in the state of Florida are under some type of tropical storm, flood, storm surge or hurricane watch or warning at this point in time,” said Kevin Guthrie, the director of Florida’s Division of Emergency Management, in a Wednesday press conference. “That’s 64 out of 67 counties that need to pay attention to their alerts starting today.”

Gov. Ron DeSantis said tens of thousands of linemen are pouring into the state in anticipation of widespread power outages, and that the state has other state assets ready to go. He urged residents to be ready for power outages, potentially long ones.

“Be prepared to lose power in a storm like this. It’s just the nature of it. Make sure you have what you need to ride it out,” he said.

He also specifically warned that Tallahassee is set to see 120mph winds or higher from Helene, an intense hurricane for a relatively untested area.

“The way this is tracking is a storm that is stronger than we’ve seen in anyone’s memory,” he said. “You’re looking at a really significant impact.”

A big, broad storm

The situation for the Big Bend was growing “increasingly dire,” Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the hurricane center, said in a briefing Wednesday evening.

Throughout the day, the hurricane center upped its surge forecast for the area near landfall from a potential peak of 15 feet to 20 feet above ground.

“I’ve been here 25 years. We don’t normally forecast storm surge values like this,” he said. “This is big.”

Satellite imagery showed Helene growing stronger — and wider — as it hit the Gulf and morphed into a hurricane on Wednesday.

By Thursday morning, when Helene is nearest Tampa Bay, its wind field is expected to be nearly 430 miles wide, with the vast majority of it on the east side. The last few storms that size in the Gulf include Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Hurricane Ike in 2008.

The outer bands of Helene began lashing the state, starting with the Keys, Wednesday afternoon. The increasingly frequent gusty squalls will work their way up the state overnight and into Thursday, when South Florida will feel the worst of them, before Helene hooks into the Big Bend area late Thursday.

Just before landfall, the hurricane center predicts that Helene will have sustained winds of 130 mph, a Category 4 storm.

The speed of the powerful storm — an estimated 20 mph at landfall — will push the high wind and rain impacts deep inland, crossing the state capitol of Tallahassee and pushing into Georgia by Friday, where Helene could drop tremendous amounts of rain.

As of the 11 p.m. update, Helene was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph sustained winds. It was about 425 miles southwest of Tampa and headed north at 9 mph, a bit slower than earlier in the day.

Evacuations underway

Mandatory evacuations were underway across most of the state on Wednesday, including in the Trailer Estates Mobile Home Park in Bradenton.

Donna Puro, 77, spent the morning preparing her home along with her daughter and a friend. They grabbed sandbags, took items off the walls to keep them from becoming debris and moved the grill to a secure location.

Puro was headed to a nearby Hyatt hotel, which she said she booked three days ago out of precaution, well in advance of the storm officially forming into a tropical storm or a hurricane.

Her friend called that a smart move.

“You can replace a trailer, but you can’t replace your life,” Savinon said.

Still, Puro said she believes things are going to be OK.

“I think we’re going to be safe,” Puro said. “Compared to the other ones, this one doesn’t seem as close.”

Multiple hits

Helene’s eye looks like it will come ashore in the Big Bend region, which has been walloped by multiple storms in the past few years — four hurricanes since 2021, including Debby, Idalia, Nicole and Elsa.

Residents say they’re prepared for Helene, thanks to practice from those other storms.

Last year, Jody Griffis rode out Category 4 Hurricane Idalia in the Steinhatchee marina he co-owned at the time. He watched 11 feet of storm surge roar into his quiet slice of Old Florida. Nearly 560,000 people were without power at some point.

Last month, he watched Category 1 Hurricane Debby douse his neighborhood as he and his wife sipped mimosas inside their stilt house that stands right at the edge of the Gulf in the small community of Cedar Island, about 20 minutes north of Steinhatchee. Debby knocked down trees and powerlines and sloshed Cedar Key with about five feet of storm surge.

On Wednesday, he was in “full prep mode” as he shuttered his home and planned to head to higher ground. This one feels different.

“I’m 57. I trust my gut,” he told the Miami Herald. “My gut says, ‘Get the hell out for this one.’”

The threat of deadly storm surge is his biggest worry.

“They’re saying 11 to 16 feet,” he said. “That’s way up in my house.”