Florida could be in for heavy rain starting this weekend as Gulf system moves east

It’s still not clear whether the disturbance lingering in the Gulf of Mexico for the last week will get its act together enough to form a tropical depression or storm anytime soon.

What is clear is that Florida will likely see heavy rain starting Sunday as the system moves east and over the Florida peninsula.

How much is still up in the air. Some models showed just under 2 inches in South Florida over the next seven days, and now other models are suggesting up to 10 inches along coastal Broward and Palm Beach counties.

The latest estimate from the Miami office of the National Weather Service is 8 to 10 inches in Fort Lauderdale, 6 to 8 inches in Miami and 4 to 6 inches in Homestead over the next seven days.

“Projected rainfall totals will fluctuate day to day, particularly this far out. As we get closer, confidence and consistency in potential values should increase,” NWS Miami said. “Regardless of whether a tropical system develops or not, heavy rainfall and flooding will remain the primary threat with this setup.”

As of Friday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center gave the disturbance a 50% chance of developing in the next seven days, a slight uptick from the morning, and a 10% chance of developing in the next two days.

“We could see widespread heavy rainfall through next week across much of the Florida peninsula,” NHC Director Mike Brennan said in a Friday afternoon video update .

Miami-Dade County warned residents to prepare for potential street flooding, and Mayor Daniella Levine Cava urged residents to follow the NWS Miami office for updates.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Category 4 Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie are on paths that keep them away from land through the middle of next week. Leslie is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as soon as Saturday.

The hurricane center also started following a new disturbance in the far east on Friday afternoon, which it gave a 20% chance of development over the next seven days.

The next name on the list is Milton.