Former President Donald Trump is narrowly leading Vice President Kamala Harris with early voters in battleground states, new polling reveals.
In the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris poll , 48% of early voters in battleground states said they voted for Trump, while 47% said they voted for Harris. Five percent said they chose someone else or haven’t yet voted.
“We’re seeing in the battleground states basically now equal distribution of the mail-in votes by party,” Mark Penn , the chairman of The Harris Poll, said in an interview with The Hill. “That’s a sea change.”
By comparison, in the 2020 election , around 60% of Democrats and 32% of Republicans voted by mail nationwide, according to a study done by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
“This will be a huge evening out here for Republicans,” Penn said, adding that Trump’s presence in some swing states — including his large rallies — has paid off.
The election is likely to come down a handful of battleground states — including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — which polls show Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in.
Harris, on the other hand, outpaced Trump by a significantly larger margin among early voters nationwide, with 51.4% saying they cast their ballots for Harris, and 42.6% saying they chose Trump. Six percent said they chose another candidate or have not yet voted.
The poll, conducted between Oct. 11 and 13, sampled 3,145 registered voters and has a margin of error of 1.8 percentage points.
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The poll also found that, nationwide, more Democrats plan to vote early than Republicans.
Forty-nine percent of Democrats said they plan to vote early, while the same share said they plan to vote on Election Day.
By comparison, 42% of Republicans said they plan to vote early — marking a 7-point difference from Democrats — while 55% said they plan to vote on Election Day.
Forty-five percent of independents said they intend to vote on Election Day, and 44% said they plan to vote early.
Additionally, 91% of Democrats who said they plan to vote early said they are supporting Harris, while 90% of Republicans who said they plan to vote early said they are supporting Trump.
Among independents who said they plan to vote early, 46% said they intend to cast their ballots for Harris and 43% said they plan to do so for Trump.
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