Potential for a new storm to form soon near Caribbean continues to fall, forecasters say

The chance that a new storm could form and approach the Caribbean in the next seven days continues to fall.

The National Hurricane Center once again lowered the possibility of formation for a disturbance in the mid-Atlantic. As of Thursday morning, it had fallen to a 30% chance of strengthening in the next seven days and a 20% chance in the next two days.

And even if the system manages to survive the dry air and storm-shredding shear of a nearby cold front, most computer model forecasts take it straight west across the Caribbean as a weak storm with some rain.

“It’s either going to get absorbed by the front or die moving west. With the deep fall trough and front pushing through FL this creates a safe haven for the USA,” Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel posted on X .

The other disturbance, the one off the coast of Central America, has a low chance of development. As of Thursday morning, the hurricane center gave it a 30% shot at strengthening into a tropical depression in the next two or seven days.

Forecasters said this system only has a chance to get stronger over open water, but most models show it looping back in toward land, where it could bring flooding rain.

“Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend,” the hurricane center said.