ANALYSIS: Ranking the Miami Hurricanes’ games from easiest to most difficult

The Miami Hurricanes face one of their easiest schedules in recent memory, avoiding programs like Clemson, NC State, North Carolina and SMU’s high-flying offense in the conference portion while not facing any major out-of-conference opponents that had winning records in 2023. Is that a reason Miami is listed with a win over-under of 9.5 by FanDuel ? Well, it’s a big part of it, right? Because there are four “gimme” games in Florida A&M, Ball State, Duke and Wake Forest. Those four programs just really don’t have much high level talent on either side of the ball.

So go ahead and pencil in four wins for the Canes there … we are assuming those days of losses to the likes of FIU are in the past, right?

Then there is a middle tier of games, which we consider decent teams that are out-talented by Miami on both sides of the ball. Those are the ones we have seen the Canes struggle with for a lot of the past 20 years, sort of like last year’s matchups with Georgia Tech and Virginia, which were both decided by three points (the first a stunning didn’t-take-a-knee loss, the other a three-point overtime win). The Yellow Jackets were 7-6 last year, by the way, and Virginia ended 3-9. Those are the kind of teams you would expect a “real” Miami team to easily defeat.

This year’s opponents that we see similar to the Georgia Tech’s of last year as middle-of-the-road challenges are, well, Georgia Tech once again along with Syracuse, USF and Cal. Even with the latter game a 3,000-mile trip across the country, Miami just has more talent at pretty much every position. There should be no excuses for losing to any of those four teams. So if that holds true, it gets you to eight “expected” wins.

Which leaves Florida, Virginia Tech, Louisville and Florida State.

The Gators have struggled with three straight losing seasons … but that’s in the SEC against a brutal schedule. Heck, if Miami had to face the schedule Florida has this year (facing Miami, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, UCF, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and FSU), perhaps the Canes would have an over-under win total of closer to five or six. Make no mistake about it, Florida has some talent returning on offense that can do damage, although the defense has question marks.

As you look at the Hokies’ returning personnel? You get the feeling they are being severely underrated in early polls. It has the look of a top 20 team with a lot of offensive firepower and enough pieces on defense to cause problems.

And Louisville and FSU are generally considered top 25 teams, with the Seminoles expected to compete to be in the playoffs coming off that undefeated 2023 regular season.

So, really, Miami’s season should hinge on those four toughest games … if this team plays consistently up to its talent level. Win two of the four and finish 10-2 and you would consider it a pretty successful season based on where Miami’s coming from (one 10-win season in the last 20 years). Lose three or all four? Not living up to the preseason hype. And if you want to dream of winning three of the four or even all four … well, then you can start talking about the program being “back.”

Let’s take a closer capsule look at what Miami’s up against in all 12 games this season, ranked by difficulty from easiest to most difficult:

12. FLORIDA A&M

The easiest game on the schedule is against a FAMU team that is coming off a 12-1 Black College Football National Championship season, but of course this is a team at a much different FCS level. Miami simply out-talents the Rattlers at every position on the field. It won’t help that FAMU’s starting QB and RB are gone along with the top two receivers. And on defense six key departures will hurt the program, including Anthony Dunn Jr. and his eight sacks transferring to Toledo. Miami will win this one in a blowout.

11. BALL STATE

Along with FAMU this game should be a blowout for the Hurricanes. The MAC team finished 4-8 last year and has a lot of offensive issues plus a defense that was decent last year but lost a ton of personnel. On offense the QB situation remains unsettled with Kadin Semonza and Marshall transfer Chase Harrison competing, and neither is going to really scare you. The top RB is gone and no returning receiver had more than 358 yards. On defense the team lost three of its major playmakers, including Sidney Houston and his eight sacks. There really shouldn’t be much for UM to worry about in this one.

10. DUKE

Sorry Manny Diaz, your new team just isn’t very good. The Blue Devils are coming off pretty good 9-5 and 8-5 seasons, but a lot of the talent is gone on both sides of the ball. The team’s top QB and RB transferred out, and the No. 2 WR and four starting linemen are gone. So on offense Duke hopes that Texas transfer QB Maalik Murphy can find some magic after playing sparingly previously. The defense lost four starting defensive linemen along with a top LB and DB. So there are all kinds of question marks on that side of the ball as well. Diaz is trying to make do with a lot of transfer portal pieces (16 additions), so we’ll see how that works out.

9. WAKE FOREST

This is the final “easy” tier game along with FAMU, Ball State and Duke. Wake Forest is a struggling program that was 1-7 in ACC play last year and probably won’t be a heck of a lot better this time around. A lot will hinge on QB arrival Hank Bachmeier from La. Tech, but he’s going to be in a fall starting battle. The defense has a few key returners back including DE Jasheen Davis and his 7.5 sacks, but there just isn’t a lot that scares you on either side of the ball for this team.

8. SYRACUSE

The Orange could be a sneaky good team if the offense can get its act together after ranking 90 ^th in the nation in scoring . A lot will rest on the shoulders of QB Kyle McCord, who arrives from Ohio State, and also the return to full health of star TE Oronde Gadsden II, who is coming off a Lisfranc injury. Defense is the strength here, with Texas A&M pass rusher Fadil Diggs a guy the Canes will have to focus on stopping. There are five other significant returners on defense, plus transfer portal guys (including the aforementioned Diggs) that if they pan out can make the D pretty good and make Syracuse a dangerous team to face.

7. USF

The Bulls’ strength off a 7-6 2023 season is an offense led by record-breaking dual threat QB Byrum Brown. The team’s top WR and RB also return, as do four starting offensive linemen. So this is an experienced and talented offense, even with USF not at the same level of Miami’s program. The Canes should be able to take advantage of a suspect defense, which is expected to be USF’s Achilles’ heel and make this one of Miami’s easier opponents. Last year the defense ranked No. 115 in the nation in total defense and No. 129 in passing yards allowed, giving up 29 TD passes. Six starters return (with one of the departures standout Daquan Evans and his 14 TFL and four sacks) and you just don’t see a lot of difference-makers.

6. GEORGIA TECH

This will be a game in which a lot of national media rehash last year’s didn’t-take-a-knee storyline, of course, so Miami will simply need to be focused on the task at hand. And Georgia Tech is a good, but not real good, program that’s had six losing seasons in the last nine years and probably will be hovering right around that .500 mark this year given the defense wasn’t good last season and lost four of its top players. The offense is solid, though, with only minor losses and a group that ranked No. 12 in rush offense and No. 34 in total offense. Some high-scoring games could be in Georgia Tech’s future.

5. CAL

The 3,000-mile trip across the country will see Miami face the Golden Bears coming off a 6-7 season, and it’s a team that has some firepower on offense and question marks on defense. The offense averaged 30.2 points last year and has a couple of talented QBS looking to emerge in North Texas transfer Chandler Rogers and returner Fernando Mendoza. The receiving unit lost its top guy (Jeremiah Hunter left for Washington), but really what will make this team go is a run game that has back Jaydn Ott, who ran for 1,315 yards and 12 TDs. It will help that three starting OL return. On defense this might be a bit of a mess after the team ranked No. 102 in total D and lost top tackler Kaleb Elarms-Orr to TCU. The linebackers are the strength on this side of the ball, but up front and in the DB room there are question marks (the secondary has talent but ranked No. 128 in the nation in pass yards allowed and yielded 30 TDs).

4. FLORIDA

The Gators might be projected with just five or six wins this year coming off a 5-7 2023 season … and three straight losing records. But this is a team facing a ridiculously tough schedule that many list as the hardest in the nation. So don’t overlook this one, as the Gators have enough talent to cause Miami problems in the season opener. That starts with an offense that returns QB Graham Mertz, who threw for 20 TDs with only three INTs, and has back one of its main RBs Montrell Johnson along with top WR Eugene Wilson III and three starting offensive linemen. The portal will also help, including adding Arizona State WR Elijhah Badger and Wisconsin WR Chimere Dike. The defense could be an Achilles’ heel with four main returners and UF hoping some portal additions and inexperienced players can step up.

3. VIRGINIA TECH

The Hokies are a sneaky good team with playmakers on offense and defense. Coming off a 7-6 record you can argue that the play on both sides will be better, and the offense is led by QB Kyron Drones, who is a dual threat and enjoyed success last year after taking over as the starter three games in. The top three receivers also are back, and top RB Bhayshul Tuten returns along with all five starting offensive linemen. That continuity should really help in this era when teams are constantly shaking up chemistry with transfers in and out. On the other side of the ball the Hokies ranked No. 20 in total defense last year and have back two starters up front and padded the line with portal additions like Duke’s Aeneas Peebles (had 33 QB pressures). Top LB Keli Lawson is back, and three starters return in the secondary including standout corners Mansoor Delane and Dorian Strong. So nothing will come easy against what should be a solid Hokies team.

2. LOUISVILLE

The Cardinals are really good on both sides of the ball, and this will be a major challenge for Miami. Coming off a 10-4 season the strength here is probably a defense that was No. 1 in the nation in red zone D a year ago and No. 21 in total defense. There are eight key starters back on that side of the ball and some transfers that will compete to start and add depth. The offense lost some pieces, including starters at QB and RB, so a lot will hinge on the performance of Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough. The team’s also hoping some other portal additions can be major playmakers on offense, including Alabama WR Ja’Corey Brooks, South Alabama WR Caullin Lacy, San Diego State TE Mark Redman, Kentucky TE Izayah Cummings, Northern Illinois center Pete Nygra, Yale OT Jonathan Mendoza, Texas Tech OT Monroe Mills and even Miami transfer RB Don Chaney. If the portal pieces on offense come through, watch out for Louisville making national noise.

1. FLORIDA STATE

This is the game everyone has circled on the calendar, of course. The annual rivalry game against a team that finished last year undefeated will have plenty of hype, and while the Seminoles lost a lot of talent, they followed the same path they used a year ago to stack this team … the transfer portal. Among the new pieces are Oregon State QB DJ Uiagalelei, Alabama RB Roydell Williams, Indiana speedy RB/KR Jaylin Lucas, Alabama WR Malik Benson, LSU WR Jalen Brown, UF OL Richie Leonard, Georgia DE Marvin, Jones Jr., Auburn LB Cam Riley, Colorado CB Omarion Cooper and Alabama DB Earl Little, Jr. 40 percent or more of the starting lineup could be transfers, similar to last year. And 2023 worked out pretty well for FSU, right?

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