President Joe Biden ’s blue wall of states that gave him his 2020 victory has crumbled under the weight of voter support for former President Donald Trump, threatening his reelection.
In five of six battleground states that pushed Biden over the finish line first in 2020, Trump now leads. And in the sixth — Michigan — the two are tied.
In a new survey from Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute, Trump is leading Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. What’s more, in their national survey, Trump is up over Biden 47%-44%.
“As this poll from the crucial swing states shows, things could not be looking better for the Trump campaign,” said Chris Talgo, editorial director for the Heartland Institute.
The survey is the latest in a string of polls that have shown Trump beating Biden in key battleground states where the election is to be decided in November.
Those battleground state victories could give Trump a sizable Electoral College victory. In one count from the University of Virginia Center for Politics, Trump leads Biden 312 electoral votes to 196. Some 270 electoral votes are needed to win, and the new report shows that there are only 30 “toss up” votes available to Biden.
The Center’s analysis called its election review the Democratic Party’s " Doomsday map " if Biden stays in the race. It not only shows the potential for a Trump landslide, it also puts several states that have been Democratic strongholds, such as Virginia, Maine and Minnesota, in toss up or leans Republican status.
The Rasmussen survey shared with Secrets showed that in Arizona, which was won by Biden in 2020 with 10,457 votes, Trump led 50%-41%. In Georgia, which was won by Biden with 12,670 votes, Trump led 48%-43%. In Nevada, which Biden won by 33,596 votes, Trump leads 50%-45%. Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania, won by Biden in 2020 by 81,660 votes, is 47%-44%. Trump is also leading in Wisconsin, won by Biden by 20,682 votes, 48%-46%. In Michigan, Biden won by a big margin of 154,188 votes, and he and Trump are tied at 46% each.
The possibility of losing the election has Democrats scrambling to push Biden out of the race, but he is ignoring their efforts in part because no alternative candidate is polling much better than he is in a two-way race.
Many in the media late last week said that the pressure would succeed, but now those reports are looking like embarrassingly wrong predictions as the Biden team stands strong.
Some of the key findings from the battleground survey from Rasmussen-Heartland include:
In a two-way matchup, 52% of whites, 28% of black voters, and 54% of Hispanics and other minorities would vote for Trump, while 41% of whites, 64% of black voters, 37% of Hispanics and 34% of other minorities would vote for Biden.
In the two-way matchup, Biden and Trump are now tied among under-40 battleground state voters, who went decisively for Biden four years ago. Trump leads by eight points among those ages 40-64 and by five points among voters 65 and older.
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There is a significant gender gap among battleground state voters, with men favoring Trump by an 11-point margin in the two-way matchup, while women voters split evenly between Trump and Biden.
In every battleground state with a U.S. Senate race, the Democratic Senate candidate outperforms Biden against the GOP opposition. For example, in Arizona, where Trump leads Biden by nine points, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has a three-point lead over Republican Kari Lake, in the contest for the Senate seat being vacated by the retirement of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.
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