2024 Big Game Coach Statuses

By Kyle Golik

Kirby Smart - The Dean of all Coaches

When it comes to big games, Smart is like his mentor Nick Saban where if you give him time to beat you, he almost certainly does. In the 2020’s, Smart has four losses, three of them came to Saban, and his only other loss was a Top 10 defeat to Florida during 2020.

In this decade, the two national championships and 11-4 record against Top 10 teams speaks to how the Bulldogs are setting the pack not only in the SEC but nationally.

What Smart now has to contend with is new blood in the SEC with Texas and Oklahoma coming in. Alabama reloaded in replacing Nick Saban with Kalen DeBoer, and it seems Lane Kiffin is firing on all cylinders with LSU and Tennessee having potent offenses to give Smart trouble.

Ryan Day - The Freak Accident Away From The Grave

By all accounts, Day should have one of the coziest seats if he wasn’t at Ohio State. When you begin to take in what Day has accomplished through five full seasons as head coach; a national championship game appearance, two Big Ten Championships, three College Football Playoff berths, and a 56-8 overall record, you have to ask yourself why is Day a freak accident away from the grave?

I doubt Ohio State would like a John Cooper sequel in Columbus and another loss against “The Team Up North” would certainly begin to question Day’s security. Prior to Cooper dropping his fourth in a row to Michigan between 1988 to 1991, the only other times in Ohio State history it happened was during the infancy of the rivalry (1901 to 1909), prior to The Great Depression (1922 to 1927), and following World War II (1945 to 1948).

There is a reason for the longest of time, Ohio State was nicknamed "The Graveyard of Coaches," losing to Michigan is a popular cause for its inhabitants, something Day will try to avoid this year.

Dabo Swinney - Needs To Regain “Eye of the Tiger”

There is no denying the Hall of Fame resume Dabo Swinney possesses and how he and Nick Saban defined the late 2010’s in college football. But ever since the departures of Trevor Lawrence and Brent Venables, Clemson seems to be back to the very good program it has been throughout its history.

Much like how Florida State was caught napping on Clemson’s ascension, it was Swinney focused on his crusade against NIL and Transfer Portal that missed Florida State, who embraced it all to leapfrog Clemson once again.

One of the biggest criticisms of Clemson throughout the end of their run and what has plagued them the last few seasons has been a down ACC. One of the better indictments was when Clemson wasn’t able to take advantage of a Tennessee team in the Orange Bowl without Hendon Hooker and took a bad loss.

Swinney, instead of channeling his inner Rev. Bill Graham throughout The Palmetto State and anyone nationally who will listen, needs to find his inner Apollo Creed to remind him and regain his “Eye of the Tiger” Rocky III style.

If Swinney cannot adjust or regain his edge, any inclusion of Swinney in Top 10's focuses more on what he accomplished in the previous decade versus current achievements.

Steve Sarkisian and Mike Norvell - Need To Prove 2023 Wasn't A Fluke.

Both Sarkisian and Norvell had big 2023’s that may have been critical turning points in their careers.

Sarkisian got Texas back into the playoffs, where he ran again into Kalen DeBoer and took a tough loss. Along the way, Texas beat an up-and-coming Kansas squad, Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium, went toe-to-toe with Oklahoma, and won the Big XII Championship.

With the plethora of offensive weapons back in Austin, especially under center with Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning , they should be able to set the pace offensively in their first SEC season. Hopefully, the Longhorns have capable defensive replacements and don’t become like last season’s LSU with offensive mastery and defensive misery all in one.

Arguably the greatest stiff arm was Norvell being rejected by the College Football Playoff to play in its invitational and the bowl opt-outs led to the disaster against Georgia in the Orange Bowl, but 2023 was a long time coming for Seminoles fans.

The tide turned in 2022 with the unfortunate LSU mental and discipline miscues in the Superdome, close encounters against Clemson and Wake Forest - both in the Top 15 showed the progress Florida State had made.

The Jordan Travis injury was unfortunate, but the resolve Florida State had to finish 13-0 was as impressive as any I have seen. Norvell hopes quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei can put an exclamation point on his collegiate career.

The Seminoles should be undefeated entering November and what they do on the road against Notre Dame and at home against Florida, who would be primed to play spoiler, will define Norvell moving forward.

Kalen DeBoer - Little Nicky?

It would be blasphemous to compare any successor to an iconic coach and feel good about it.

There is no denying Nick Saban’s place all time, you either have him the greatest or you got “Bear” Bryant ahead of him, and by no means did Alabama find a Ray Perkins this time around when replacing an immortal.

DeBoer is 104-12 overall, if you include his 67-3 record at NAIA Sioux Falls where he won three national championships, but as a Power 4 coach his record is 25-3 (DeBoer was 12-6 at Fresno State).

During his brief time at Washington, he was beginning to remind folks of Saban mentor Don James, and many felt his 2023 team might have been the greatest Husky team of them all over the venerable 1991 group led by James.

DeBoer flipped the script for Washington with their rivalry with Oregon going 3-0, with the last two encounters having the highest of stakes in the rivalry. Other major wins for DeBoer were beating Texas twice and finishing 10-1 versus ranked teams in two seasons at Washington, a mastery that was very "Saban-esque."

Kyle Whittingham - Now or Never

Whittingham will be 65 this year, at some point Utah will either breakthrough in the Big XII or it will never be meant to be for the Hall of Fame coach.

On one hand, its hard to ignore Utah going undefeated and defeating Alabama in the Sugar Bowl in 2008. Even with the many tradewinds of college football realignment, Whittingham was able to conquer the Pac-12, winning back-to-back championships in 2021 and 2022 that included having to beat Oregon (2021) and Southern California (2022) when both were ranked in the Top 10.

On the other hand, Whittingham has five consecutive bowl losses, including two high-profile Rose Bowl losses to Big Ten powers Ohio State and Penn State.

Injuries derailed Utah from winning a third consecutive Pac-12 Championship, even without them, not sure Utah was in the same class as Oregon or Washington. With a return for super senior quarterback Cameron Rising and a manageable schedule, Utah could change a narrative on Whittingham not being able to win a big postseason game.

Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly - Defensive Hood Adjustments

It got so bad for Southern California last season defensively, Riley could not justify keeping Alex Grinch any longer.

For Riley, he wasted Heisman Trophy winner quarterback Caleb Williams' time with the Trojans.

It was almost as if Riley took for granted having prodigies like Williams around, it was all-in-all Riley’s third Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback.

Riley realized he wasn’t close whatsoever to living up to his contract and rebuilt the defensive staff as good as any in the country.

If the spring game defensive performances, with five total turnovers and four interceptions are any indication of how good the Trojans defense can be, it can help change the narrative of big game challenges for Riley.

Riley is 0-3 in the College Football Playoff and with encounters this season against LSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Washington, Nebraska, and Notre Dame to complete the season.

It is a bit premature to judge Riley based on his coaching adjustment after this season, but winning a majority of those games will reassert Riley back into many Top 5 coaching lists.

Meanwhile, Brian Kelly would like to change the narrative in his career as the coach who can’t win the big game at all.

Kelly is 0-5 in New Year’s Six bowl games (0-7 overall if you want to include losses after he departed Notre Dame and Cincinnati prior to the bowl games) which includes an 0-3 record in two College Football Semifinals and a BCS National Championship appearance.

What many Notre Dame fans expressed on Kelly’s departure is kind of what you see now in Baton Rouge - Kelly is good enough to get you there and flirt with championship aspirations, but won’t ever deliver.

Kelly was the necessary adult in the room LSU needed after Ed Orgeron went rogue but did not have a defense ready (82nd in scoring defense at 28 points per game) to compliment a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback and two NFL First Round Draft choices who were the engine to the nation’s top scoring offense at 45.5 points per game.

In LSU’s three defeats, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Florida State, the Bayou Bengal defense got shredded for 142 points and 1,707 yards of total offense surrendered.

Kelly’s “fam-uh-lee” in Louisiana might not be as patient as the one he abandoned in Indiana if the same poor results continue.

Dan Lanning - Not Controlled Aggressive Coaching Gene

If we recognize Lanning’s coaching debut as just a day everything went wrong for Oregon against the defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs that eviscerated the Ducks 49-3, Oregon has gone 22-4 and while three of those losses came against Kalen DeBoer and Cascade rival Washington, it was an aggressive move that backfired against Lanning that doomed Oregon.

No one will question Lanning’s results, but ultimately if he wants to deliver Oregon its first national championship, he has to find a way to keep his aggressive gene in check in his coaching DNA.

The next step in Lanning’s maturation is understanding it isn’t do or die every time, learning to be calculated in his approach is what separates the elite from the good.

What Oregon fans can take in is knowing Lanning isn’t fearful in the big moment and that is something even the most experienced coaches still choke under, Lanning is unwavering in his confidence in his calls and that should pay off later.