Preseason Top 10: Who's Ranked Too High, Too Low, and Just Right

By Brett Daniels

Like the Swallows returning to Capistrano, the middle of August is Preseason Poll time in College Football. The AFCA (Coaches) Poll and Associated Press (AP) Poll have both been released with few surprises in the Top 10. Preseason polls for the most part aren’t worth the paper that they are printed on and are mostly conjecture and educated guesses on which teams will be successful and which will fall short in the 2024 season. History tells us that at least one of the Preseason Top 10 won’t be ranked at the end of the year and that the National Champion most likely resides in the Top Seven. Using those historical landmarks, we will look at the top 10 and analyze who is ranked too high, who is ranked too low, and who is right where they should be.

1. Georgia Bulldogs (#1 AP, #1 Coaches)

The Dawgs are 42-2 over the last three seasons with two National Championships and three undefeated regular seasons in a row.

Ranked: Just Right

A tough schedule opening in Atlanta against Clemson followed by road trips to the #4, #5, and #6 ranked teams on this list could see the Dawgs slip up once (or more). The depth/health of the defensive line is also a question mark. Georgia has proven depth at every other position on the field which will be key as the season stretches to 16 or 17 games.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (#2 AP, #2 Coaches)

The Buckeyes will be looking to make a run in the 12-team playoff with the most talented roster in college football.

Why they could be ranked higher?

The difference between Georgia and Ohio State for the #1 spot in the preseason polls is small. The Buckeyes have a Blue Chip Index of 90% which is the highest of any team. A relatively manageable schedule will see Ohio State start with three games at home before traveling to Michigan State in Week 4. Road games against Oregon and Penn State will be a challenge before ending the season at home against Michigan.

Why they could be ranked lower?

None. The only reason that Ohio State is behind Georgia in the initial polls is the uncertainty at the QB position. Kansas State transfer Will Howard is the early favorite to start for the Buckeyes.

3. Oregon Ducks (#3 AP, #3 Coaches)

Will 2024 be the Year of the Duck? Coach Dan Lanning has built a West Coast powerhouse in Eugene and expectations are through the roof for an Oregon National Championship. An easy schedule featuring only two ranked teams (Ohio State at home, Michigan on the road) will put the Ducks in prime contention.

Why they could be ranked higher?

They can’t. While the roster is the best it has been since the Chip Kelly days (and it’s probably better on defense than those teams), the Ducks aren’t quite at the same level as Georgia and Ohio State.

Why they could be ranked lower?

Lack of quality depth, although they probably won’t need it until they get to the playoffs.

4. Texas Longhorns (#4 AP, #4 Coaches)

The Longhorns enter their first season of SEC play coming off one of the best years in recent program history. QB Quinn Ewers returns for year three at the helm and the Offensive Line will be one of the best in the conference. RB CJ Baxter suffered a season-ending injury in fall camp so the depth on offense will be tested from the beginning of the season.

Why they could be ranked higher?

Ewers is poised to take the next step and build off a solid 2023 campaign. OT Kelvin Banks, Jr will be a first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft should he choose to declare.

Why they could be ranked lower?

Texas lost a lot from the 2023 team that won 12 games most notably on the defensive line, the secondary is also suspect. The Longhorns will visit Michigan in Week 2 and welcome #1 Georgia into Austin the week after playing Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout. The Horns finish the year with a trip to Texas A&M.

5. Alabama Crimson Tide (#5 AP, #5 Coaches)

Alabama is second in the Blue-Chip Index with 88% of the roster falling into that category, talent won’t be an issue in Tuscaloosa this fall. QB Jalen Milroe will return for Year two under center and the interior offensive line will be as good as anyone in the country.

Why they could be ranked higher?

Talent all over the field at every level of the offense and defense. Coach Kalen Deboer has won at every level he has coached at prior to arriving in Tuscaloosa.

Why they could be ranked lower?

Alabama lost its top four pass catchers and two of its top three leading rushers from 2023 to the NFL or Transfer Portal. The talent is there but largely unproven. Losing both corners to the NFL and safety Caleb Downs to Ohio State is a blow to the secondary as well. As good as Deboer has been at his previous stops, it takes a few games for a new coach to gel with his team. The Tide might be vulnerable early and turn into a team you don’t want to see in the playoffs later in the year.

6. Ole Miss Rebels (#6 AP, #6 Coaches)

Ole Miss won 11 games for the first time in program history last year but came up short against Alabama and Georgia. Recognizing that his team lacked size on both lines of scrimmage, Lane Kiffin dove into the Transfer Portal and pulled out several quality players. Will it be enough to bridge the 52-17 gap against Georgia? We’ll find out on November 9 in Oxford.

Why they could be ranked higher?

QB Jaxon Dart returns along with top TE Caden Prieskorn , WR Tre Harris, and WR Jordan Watkins . Defensively the Rebels snagged DT Walter Nolen , EDGE Princely Umanmielen , and LB Chris Paul, Jr out of the Transfer Portal. This will be the most talented team that Kiffin has fielded at Ole Miss.

Why they could be ranked lower?

Lack of depth. The first-team guys on offense and defense are as good as anyone in the country but the Rebels lack the quality depth of the higher-ranked teams from the SEC. Coach Kiffin has also had problems with getting over the hump in big games taking unnecessary risks on 4 ^th down.

7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (#7 AP, #7 Coaches)

This will be the best team that Coach Marcus Freeman has fielded in his time at Notre Dame. Defensively the Irish will be as good as anyone in the country. QB Riley Leonard brings a mobile element to the Irish offense along with the return of OC Mike Denbrock from LSU.

Why they could be ranked higher?

The schedule and the defense. The Irish only play three true road games along with three neutral site games (Georgia Tech, Navy, Army) and get two of their toughest tests at home (Louisville, Florida State). The defense has stars at every level most notably S Xavier Watts .

Why could they be ranked lower?

Depth. The offensive line took a big blow with LT Charles Jagusah tearing a chest muscle in camp and will be out for the year .

8. Penn State Nittany Lions (#8 AP, #9 Coaches)

Penn State should have a championship-caliber defense and if the offense is improved… watch out. QB Drew Allar is the most experienced returning signal caller in the Big Ten and has several new weapons on offense to play with.

Why they could be ranked higher?

Against everyone not named Ohio State and Michigan the Nittany Lions have been pretty good. Michigan is replaced on this year’s schedule with a trip to USC and Ohio State must come to Happy Valley. IF the offensive line can protect Allar and open holes for the running game then the Nittany Lions should find themselves in the playoffs.

Why they could be ranked lower?

The offensive line is a major concern going into the season. Allar is a good QB but no one can throw the ball if they are flat on their back. The receivers need to stretch the field and allow the running game to get going.

9. Michigan Wolverines (#9 AP, #8 Coaches)

The defending champions will have to replace their star QB, star CB, and Head Coach from last year’s team. The defense should be good again but probably not at the level of last season.

Why they could be ranked higher?

None. This is about right for the amount of talent that the Wolverines lost to the NFL.

Why they could be ranked lower?

Distractions . While Jim Harbaugh is no longer the Head Coach at Michigan, he did receive a four-year “show cause” penalty from the NCAA in a prior case. The current NCAA case against the Wolverines involves Head Coach Sherrone Moore and other staff members. That will be hanging over the team all season.

10. Florida State Seminoles (#10 AP, #10 Coaches)

Will 2024 be a redemption tour for the Seminoles or will it show that 2023 was a flash in the pan?

Why they could be ranked higher?

None. A lot of this preseason ranking is on reputation and last year’s results. There are questions on this team all over the field.

Why they could be ranked lower?

When the transfer players and other players who were on their way to the NFL or other schools sat out, the Seminoles lost to Georgia 63-3 in the Orange Bowl. Did Coach Mike Norvell do enough in the Transfer Portal and recruiting to fill the holes on the roster.

Preseason polls are great for discussion and they provide an opportunity for the networks to hype early season games but in the grand scheme of things, they really don’t mean much.