Mississippi State Emblematic of Programs Facing the Abyss

By Rock Westfall

A little over a year ago, the unthinkable happened. The Pac-12 imploded with the defection of the Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies to the Big Ten , just one year after the USC Trojans and UCLA Bruins left for B1G riches.

Before departing, Oregon and Washington were expected to man the Pac-12 marquee in place of USC and UCLA. Once the Pac-12's four premiere teams opted out for the Big Ten, the Pac-12 had no chance to survive. With the exception of the Oregon State Beavers and Washington State Cougars, the remaining Pac-12 schools found refuge in the ACC and Big 12 . As for Oregon State and Washington State, they now serve the ultimate indignity of being filler schools for Mountain West Conference schedules.

Last May, Iowa State athletic Jamie Pollard warned of the future cannibalization of smaller college football programs and that those who have the gold make all the rules. He theorized that the top programs in the Big Ten and SEC could soon discard the bottom programs.

Pollard’s warning is based on realism and the coin of the realm. Programs such as Indiana, Northwestern, and Purdue in the Big Ten, and Mississippi State and Vanderbilt in the SEC, getting the same cut of the TV pie as Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Nebraska, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Florida, and Georgia is absurd and unrealistic. It's not sustainable.

Thus, programs such as Mississippi State, Boston College, Wake Forest, Duke, and others face a potential fate like Washington State and Oregon State.

For Mississippi State's relatively smaller fan base, these are tumultuous and worrisome times. Hail State is in a battle for its very survival.

Number One for a Minute – Mediocre for a Lifetime

With rare exceptions, Mississippi State football does not have a history of glory. Instead, it has had a few moments in the sun.

The greatest moment in Mississippi State football history came in 2014 when the first College Football Playoff ranking was released. Hail State was ranked No. 1 in the country. The Bulldogs won their first nine games before a 25-20 loss at No. 5-ranked Alabama. Miss State finished 10-3 with a final AP ranking of 11 ^th , its best season ever.

Previously under the great Jackie Sherrill , Mississippi State finished in the final Top 25 four times from 1992 through 2000 and played in the 1998 SEC championship game for the only time in its history, losing to Tennessee 24-14. Dan Mullen was the coach of the 2014 team and led the Bulldogs to eight consecutive bowl appearances and three final Top 20 rankings before departing for Florida.

Perhaps the last great moment in program history occurred in 2022. On November 24, the Bulldogs beat hated arch-rival Ole Miss 24-22 to win the Egg Bowl on the road. Not long after, legendary head coach Mike Leach unexpectedly died. Hail State finished 9-4 and 20 ^th in the final AP poll.

Sadly, things have spiraled out of control into an unrecognizable world ever since.

A Hurricane of Outside Forces – A History of Mediocrity

Zach Arnett , Mike Leach’s defensive coordinator, led the Bulldogs to a ReliaQuest Bowl win over Illinois after Leach’s death. He was kept on as head coach for continuity’s sake but was fired after a 4-6 start. Jeff Lebby , who served as offensive coordinator under Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss and later in that same role at Oklahoma, is the new head coach . There is optimism that Lebby can jumpstart the Bulldog attack. But the question is if Mississippi State can realistically survive in the future.

Before NIL , the transfer portal , and multi-billion-dollar TV packages, Mississippi State was never a serious national championship contender, except for 2014. Since the heady days of Sherrill, Mullen, and Leach, college football has become an entirely different game. And it is sensible to ask if Mississippi State has a role in it.

Since Leach died, the SEC has added two of the game’s historic bluebloods, the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners, to its already loaded roster. Mississippi State must try to compete with those two power brands and the rest of a league that was already the best in the nation.

Mississippi State simply can’t compete on an NIL level with almost all SEC schools. It can’t realistically survive in college football’s richest neighborhood on a lower-middle-class budget.

Mississippi State has always had the challenge of recruiting to the relatively rural deep south location of Starkville. In the days when NIL was under the table, it had less to offer than most of its rivals. But it had more of a fighting chance than today.

Now Hail State is a horse cavalry going up against nuclear superpowers. Georgia, Florida, LSU, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and now Missouri all come loaded with the cash to be top players in the SEC. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is led by the “Portal King” Lane Kiffin .

The best Mississippi State can hope for is to compete with Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and perhaps Kentucky. The Hail State fan base is loyal but small, and empty seats at Davis Wade Stadium have been noticeable since Mullen left. That trend is likely to get worse for a program playing against a stacked deck.

Without a Boone Pickens-type billionaire mega-donor (the late Oklahoma State benefactor), Mississippi State's sustainability is suspect at best, especially given the likelihood of a 32, 48, or 64-team super league someday.

Athletic Director Zac Selmon and his football program need a miracle. Mississippi State is a small-time program trying to compete in the biggest of the big leagues.

The ultimate question is if Mississippi State could not consistently contend before the NIL and portal era, how can it possibly do so now?

Oregon State and Washington State are a probable peak into Hail State's future. A future that does not work.

Cannibalization that grows likelier by the day.