By Rock Westfall
“Deserve” ranks with “fair” as the two most meaningless words in the English language. Perhaps they should be deleted from our lives forever. That is certainly the case when assessing the Colorado Buffaloes 3-1 record after a 38-31 win over the Baylor Bears.
On the final play of regulation, Shedeur Sanders hit LaJohntay Wester on a 43-yard prayer that sent the game into overtime. After a Colorado score, the Buffs Heisman Trophy candidate and two-way superstar Travis Hunter forced a Baylor fumble on the Colorado goal line for one of the most epic and improbable wins fans will ever see.
The ending was so bizarre that the gamblers who took Baylor and the 2.5-points along with Dave Aranda are most certainly suffering from a crisis of faith in a loving and just Supreme Being.
In fact, Aranda played the role of Santa Claus by assisting Colorado with questionable play calling and his defensive coverage alignment on that Colorado miracle TD at the end of the 4 th quarter.
Colorado outgained Baylor 432-314 and held a 24-15 first-down advantage with a 36:08 time of possession. But Baylor’s Jamaal Bell returned a 100-yard touchdown kickoff and the Bears had 91 yards of punt returns compared to seven by the Buffs.
While the win will go down as one of the most dramatic in Colorado history, Deion Sanders , his team, and his following should not take the win over a weak Baylor team as a prophecy of glory to come.
Colorado’s answered prayer is a false profit for a poorly constructed team that should take on its share of future losses in 2024.
The Reality Check of CU’s Metrics
As the Buffs prepare for a road trip to take on the UCF Knights on Saturday, they will pack some alarming metrics into their Louis Luggage. The Buffs remain challenged on the interior lines, ranking 130th for rushing offense and 83rd for stopping the rush. Although the Colorado defense has improved compared to 2023, it is still not an asset. And the offense remains much too reliant upon NFL-caliber stars Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter.
As I wrote this summer, the Big 12 could prove to be the American Football League of college football. There will be plenty of offensive fireworks and excitement but not much in the way of defense, with the exception of the Utah Utes, who currently look like the best team in the league.
It is also worth noting that Colorado barely beat an FCS team, albeit a good one, North Dakota State, 31-26 in its season opener and later beat an outmanned Colorado State team 28-9. In their third win of the season against Baylor, the sloppy Buffs should have won with ease. But Colorado averaged only 2.2 yards per rush and was outclassed in the special teams game. Most importantly, in their biggest test of 2024 at Nebraska, Colorado was outclassed in every way by a credible opponent.
Colorado Cultists Find New Faith
Real Colorado “fans” are few and far between. The Buffaloes struggled to sell out games at Folsom Field when they were a substantive winner under Bill McCartney and Gary Barnett . The current “fan” support consists of those who are fans of Deion Sanders and know little about Colorado's history in the sport. Thus, the win over Baylor is being taken as a favorable sign from Above to those who have made Deion Sanders their personal God.
The inconvenient truth is that Coach Prime has “built” an offensive line through the transfer portal . The problem is that the one unit of a football team that takes the longest to develop is the O-line. It is impossible to consistently beat good defenses and win football games with a makeshift revolving door roster of imports from other programs, especially up front where chemistry is so important. Against the more solid Big 12 programs, the poor quality of Colorado’s interior lines will be exposed.
The ultimate unknown and potentially favorable wild card for Deion Sanders and the Buffs is the quality level of the Big 12. Consider that what was thought to be a good Kansas State team was obliterated 38-9 against surprising BYU. Colorado may benefit from a league that is not as good as expected. But that is nothing to bank on, especially this early.
This week’s opponent, UCF, is 3-0 but has two wins over patsies (New Hampshire and Sam Houston), followed by a miracle win of its own at TCU, where the Knights rallied from a 28-7 third-quarter deficit to win 35-34 with less than a minute to play. UCF may be more beatable than the "experts" realize.
Coach Prime and the Buffs rolled snake eyes last week. But their upcoming reality is more problematic.
Nobody routinely beats lottery-level odds. Not even Deion Sanders.
Football laws of gravity never change. Colorado’s blueprint is not sustainable for serious success.
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