The End is Near for Mack Brown at North Carolina

By Alec Nederveld

Mack Brown is many things. The all-time winningest coach in North Carolina history. The only coach in college football history to have 100 wins at multiple schools . A College Football Hall of Famer. And the biggest problem at North Carolina.

Since starting his second tenure with the Tar Heels in 2019, Brown has made a bowl game every season including a trip to the 2020 Orange Bowl. But UNC has only gone 1-4 in bowls, only winning the Military Bowl back in his first year. Additionally, while UNC has been ranked within the top 15 each year between 2020 and 2023, they've only finished ranked once (18th in 2020).

As bad as UNC has finished their seasons, it may not be the biggest problem. Their defense for a couple of years has been horrendous, wasting two NFL quarterbacks in Sam Howell and Drake Maye. More recently, I've seen a lack of effort and discipline. All of these come back to the head coach.

North Carolina's Strong Starts wasted

In 2020, North Carolina started 3-0. They even beat No. 19 Virginia Tech 56-45. But that win was followed up by losing to a 1-3 Florida State team for Mike Norvell's first FBS win, a game they were losing by as many as 24 points. While the Tar Heels would end up blowing out No. 23 North Carolina State and No. 9 Miami, they would also lose to Virginia, Notre Dame, and Texas A&M en route to an 8-4 season in a strange year.

Two years later in 2022, UNC started 9-1 with only one loss coming to Notre Dame, who finished ranked. They then lost to an unranked Georgia Tech team and rivals NC State at home, got blown out by Clemson in the ACC Championship, then lost a close one to Oregon in the Holiday Bowl. The 9-5 record was Brown's best in his second UNC stint and his only ACC Championship game appearance.

2023 was arguably more egregious than 2022. The Tar Heels started 6-0 and are coming off a 41-31 win over No. 25 Miami. Four of their six wins were by three or more scores. After that, it's like a switch was flipped. UNC was then upset by Virginia and North Carolina before turning things around against FCS Campbell and a Duke team without Riley Leonard. However, Mack Brown's team would lose out by double-digits in each game, ending with a 30-10 loss to West Virginia each game to finish with a disappointing 8-5 record.

No defense for the Tar Heels

Mack Brown has always been an offensive head coach. But his defense was actually a bright spot at the start of his career. When he took UNC over in 2019, the defense went from allowing 34.5 points and 447.6 yards to 373.2 yards and 23.7 points. Since then, the Tar Heels have allowed an average of 400 yards and 27 points per game in each season.

What's worse is the inconsistency and frequent outbreaks for teams. Against Virginia Tech in 2019, the Hokies put up 43 points and 490 yards, their second-most points and most yards all year. North Carolina lost by two.

The story is similar for Virginia in 2020, a game where Virginia's FBS season-high 44 points was enough to upset North Carolina 44-41. Wake Forest (53 points, 606 yards) and Virginia Tech (45 points, 495 yards) each had FBS season-highs in shootout losses to UNC.

Moving past 2021, a year without any exceptional defensive implosions takes us to 2022, where in just week 2, Appalachian State put up their best offensive performance since becoming an FBS team in 2014 with 61 points and 649 yards. The Mountaineers scored 40! points in the fourth quarter alone. In addition, Notre Dame had a season-high in the win with 45 points and 576 yards against the Tar Heels.

2023 didn't get much better. Georgia Tech had an FBS high against UNC with 635 yards and 46 points in an upset win. North Carolina State additionally set a high with 504 yards.

While defensive coordinators have changed, there are similarities between them. The Tar Heels are currently coordinated by former Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins . He replaces former Auburn head coach Gene Chizik, fired after 2023. Chizik was also the Texas co-defensive coordinator, linebacker coach, and associate head coach from 2005-2006.

Jay Bateman, DC from 2019-2021 was the only man to have success with the Tar Heels defense in 2019. Other than an unceremonious run as the final head coach of Siena from 2000-2003, he had been a defensive position coach and coordinator for his entire coaching career. Today, he's Mike Elko's defensive coordinator at Texas A&M.

Head coach retreads as coordinator don't work well. Especially when you don't ease somebody back as an analyst or position coach, instead making them turn around a bad defense at a power-four school.

2024 showing the worst parts of years past

With wins over Minnesota, Charlotte, and NC Central, North Carolina achieved their fourth year in a row with a 3-0 start. Their defense, albeit against a low level of competition was fantastic. UNC didn't allow more than 20 points in either game and gave up fewer than 250 yards in two of the games. In fact, the 167 yards allowed against NC Central were the fewest allowed by a Tar Heel team since 2009.

Against James Madison in Week 4, North Carolina was expected to win a relatively low-scoring game as the Heels were about 10-point favorites with an O/U at 47.5.

Well, the defense didn't show up as the over was hit before halftime. By just James Madison. The Dukes hung 53 points on the Tar Heels at halftime. When all was said and done, the visitor's side of the scoreboard read 70 points. What makes the number worse is that JMU didn't even play a perfect game. The Dukes had 12 penalties for 105 yards with a punt blocked returned for a touchdown.

North Carolina honestly made the game more respectable than the final score suggested. The Tar Heels, down by as many as 36 points only lost by 20 in the end and won the second half 29-17. The offense, led by backup QB Jacoby Criswell put up 616 yards of offense themselves - outgaining James Madison. Unfortunately, five turnovers only made things easier for the Dukes, including a blocked punt of their own.

Postgame, Mack Brown offered to "walk away and step down if he was the problem". The players disagreed and Brown will coach for at least another week. Still, the 74-year-old is certainly aware of what's going on and he would be wise to not deal with the stresses of coaching big-time college football.

Before the year ends, don't be surprised to see some form of a mutual parting of ways between Brown and North Carolina. It'll be best for both parties.