How Many More ‘Big Game’ Losses Can Brian Kelly Endure at LSU?

by Kyle Golik

LSU head coach Brian Kelly wasn’t singing “Viva Las Vegas” following LSU’s Week 1, 27-20 defeat to Southern California. It was another major game LSU lost under Kelly, one they should have won in his eyes. In some ways it was the same song and dance all over again.

"We had some guys play their butts off tonight, and we're sitting here,” Kelly said, immediately slamming his fist angrily against the table in frustration, again talking about the same things. About not finishing when you have an opponent in a position to put 'em away. But what we're doing on the sideline is feeling that the game's over. And I'm so angry about it that I gotta do something about it."

As Kelly cooled down and reflected on his temper tantrum, he said, "There was the emotion of the game coming out, Kelly said. "The frustration and the anger that these kids can't get a break because they're working so hard to break through, and they weren't able to break through. That was really, in a nutshell, what that was about."

Since the Southern California game, LSU has won four in a row, averaging 480 yards of total offense. LSU has outscored the opposition 156 to 81.

LSU will take on its toughest test to date against No. 9 Ole Miss, who suffered a setback of their own two weeks ago, losing 17-13 to Kentucky., However, they rebounded with a dominant 27-3 win over South Carolina at Williams-Brice Stadium in a one-sided affair.

It was the same matchup last year that turned Ole Miss' season around. In a 55-48 shootout, the Rebels gained the momentum needed to secure a New Year's Six bowl berth and achieve the program's first 11-win season.

This brings up another major point in Brian Kelly’s tenure at LSU: he holds a 3-6 record against ranked opponents. In 2022, when LSU made a surprising run to the SEC Championship, it seemed as though Kelly had left his big-game struggles from Notre Dame in the past..

Overall, Kelly has a 6-20 record against Top 10 teams in his career, while his record at LSU is 2-4. A loss to Ole Miss on Saturday would drop that to 2-5, raising even more questions about his ability to win big games.

When you consider that the last three LSU coaches— Nick Saban , Les Miles , and Ed Orgeron —all won national championships, it seemed like a fait accompli that Brian Kelly, who took Notre Dame to the 2012 BCS National Championship and two College Football Playoff berths, would achieve even more with LSU's superior talent. That’s what we all expected.

Right now, I feel this is a breaking point for Kelly. No, he won’t be fired if LSU loses to Ole Miss, but the chatter about whether Kelly can deliver when it matters most will only intensify. The question of whether LSU can win it all under Kelly will become even more debatable. With the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams, the SEC is likely to command three or even four spots. If LSU can’t win enough big games to secure one of those spots, it doesn’t bode well for Kelly’s future.

To me, a 9-3 season for Kelly is on the cards. If LSU loses to Ole Miss, Kelly will be on the hot seat entering 2025. Again, the investment of bringing Kelly to the bayou, was meant to stabilize the program, which he has done and to win championships. Kelly knows the seat isn’t getting more comfortable for the foreseeable future; he needs a big win on Saturday because he can’t endure many more losses in crucial games and remain the “Tiger King” in Baton Rouge.