'The Third Saturday in October' Will Be A Playoff Elimination Game

by Kyle Golik

It seemed for a generation of Alabama fans that the certainties in life were death, taxes, and beating Tennessee . The Crimson Tide won 15 in a row, until their 2022 clash in Neyland Stadium saw a combined 101 points scored, 61 first downs, and 1,136 yards of total offense; defense was optional that day. The end result saw Tennessee snap that streak and march the goal posts to the Tennessee River where they hoped it was the end of Alabama’s dominance in the rivalry.

As the 2023 played out, it seemed this was a new day in the rivalry as Tennessee jumped to a 20-7 halftime lead. If there was a second turning point for Alabama’s 2023 season that led them to the College Football Playoff , it was the second half in Tuscaloosa.

“Everybody’s got to choose what they want,” former Alabama head coach Nick Saban said following Alabama’s 34-20 win over Tennessee. "And we went out and scored in two plays in the second half of the first drive and changed the momentum of the game and played really well from that time on.”

Even with Nick Saban no longer in the rivalry, Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel noted this week, it doesn’t diminish the game. “This rivalry has been around a long time before Nick Saban was a part of it or I was a part of it. The magnitude of this rivalry is the historical nature and what it’s meant inside of this league a lot.”

Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer echoed similar sentiments in his thoughts this week, “I've been told it's a big deal, and I know it's a big deal. You see it from afar. These are the games, much like we've had on the schedule. As a coach, they're all big and you take one at a time. But certainly understand the significance of the rivalry. Guys are going to be very motivated to go out and do their best and prepare well and be great on Saturday.”

The annual rivalry between Alabama and Tennessee is one that doesn’t need much extra flair, but this season it does, because the loser is likely on the outside looking in for the College Football Playoff.

Let’s analyze who needs this game more:

Tennessee Needs This Game More

Tennessee looked invincible in their out of conference slate. The Volunteers averaged 63.7 points per game and 639.3 yards of total offense during their first three games that included a win versus North Carolina State .

Since entering SEC conference play, the Volunteers offense has crash landed a bit back to reality averaging 329.7 yards per game in total offense and 20.7 points per game. This included a loss to an Arkansas team that outgained Tennessee’s offense 434 to 332.

Part of the issue is the Tennessee offensive line has failed to protect quarterback Nico Iamaleava . During SEC play, Iamaleava has been sacked 10 times and has one touchdown pass in the last three games.

It seems the great expectations Vols fans had early have cooled, but a win keeps Tennessee in control for that playoff spot. The Volunteers do have a trip to Athens to play Georgia on Nov. 16. A win Saturday gives Tennessee a buffer heading into that game and not making it a must-win.

Alabama Needs This Game More

Much like how Ray Perkins , who had guided the New York Giants to their first playoff berth in a generation, had to deal with the ghost of “Bear” Bryant (Bryant died weeks after his final game), current head coach Kalen DeBoer is dealing with the living legend himself Nick Saban.

Saban has been gracious and has given DeBoer support and space to operate his program the way he sees fit . Alabama fans, however, are a different story. They have even taken to task DeBoer’s wardrobe on the sidelines.

What has Alabama faithful in an anxious mood was the stunning 40-35 upset by Vanderbilt on Oct. 5. That loss still hovers over DeBoer and in a lot of ways carried over a bit in the South Carolina matchup.

Since the Georgia game, the Alabama defense has surrendered 437 yards per game converting on 10 of 11 red zone opportunities (9 touchdowns; 1 field goal).

During the Crimson Tide’s out of conference slate, it looked like running back duo of Jamarion Miller and Justice Haynes would be the next great duo at Alabama with each recording 100-yard games.

Since entering SEC play, neither Miller nor Haynes has gained more than 50 yards in a game. In defense of the running backs, it feels neither back was given enough opportunities to establish themselves as they have split an average of 14 carries per game.

Against South Carolina, the duo averaged just over three yards per rush and was largely ineffective in complementing quarterback Jalen Milroe. That allowed the Gamecocks to hang around longer than they should.

Conclusion: Alabama Needs This More

I feel at worst Tennessee is a 9-3 team this year. The Volunteers still have to host Kentucky at home following their bye week next week, a trip “Between The Hedges” at Georgia - a game that could be a last gasp for a playoff berth, and let’s not underestimate Vanderbilt shall we.

I don’t feel the alarms are going to go off for Heupel if Tennessee has consecutive 9-win seasons.

After Alabama visits Knoxville on Saturday, their schedule does not ease up at all. Alabama will host Missouri next week. Following a bye, they visit LSU , have a a trip to Oklahoma and then the Iron Bowl .

With the SEC seemingly tight and many suitors for the three or four spots that the conference may receive from the CFP, I believe Saturday someone will get eliminated.