Cold, snowy winters are part of Wisconsin's identity. But are they a thing of the past?

Winters in Wisconsin and across the Great Lakes are becoming significantly different than in the past, as climate change continues to radically impact the environment we live in, according to a new study published in Geophysical Research Letters.

Six decades of data on winter storms across the Great Lakes region revealed a trend toward warmer and wetter weather, with less snow. Those milder winders are also clearly migrating northward, changing what areas have snowy winters and what areas get sloppy wet weather.

The impact of that change is hard to overstate. In Wisconsin, it would impact everything from tourism and skiing to snowblower and toboggan manufacturing to hardware and garden store sales. Beyond that, it puts science behind what longtime Wisconsin residents have noticed for years: harsh, monthslong winters may still be part of our identity, but they're increasingly not part of our reality.

Winters also will be much more up and down, going from one extreme to another, said Abby Hutson, assistant research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research and author on the study.

More: How does Lake Michigan affect the weather in Milwaukee?

“Everybody’s favorite saying in the Midwest is, 'If you don’t like the weather, stick around a day,’” Hutson said. “That’s going to become a lot more common.”

So, how much wetter are winter storms getting? And will this mean rain, not snow, will be the defining precipitation for winters in Wisconsin?

Here are four takeaways about what climate change has in store for winters in the Great Lakes.

Winter storms will become warmer and wetter

Winter storms across the Great Lakes have become more than a half-degree warmer each decade, or about 3.2 degrees warmer over the past 60 years, according to the study. That may not sound like much, but it is, especially when it comes to how much water storms can drop on communities at any given time.

Warmer air masses can hold more moisture than cooler ones, Hutson said, so these warmer storms bring more water with them. The study revealed that winter storms have become about 15% wetter over the past 60 years.

Conditions will swing from extreme to extreme

Much of the information scientists gleaned indicates that climate change will continue to bring swings from one extreme to another. Winter will be no exception. In other words, we could be looking at balmy, 50 degree days followed immediately by cold snaps, Hutson said.

The findings of this study in particular did not show there will be more storms, or that they are getting stronger, Hutson said. But the kind of precipitation is going to look a lot different depending on where people live within the Great Lakes region.

For many Wisconsinites, it means wintertime activities may change altogether.

More: Heavy winter rains are happening more often in Wisconsin. That's a problem. Here's why we should care.

Storm tracks are migrating northward, changing Wisconsin winters

What a winter storm looks like depends on where you are within the storm track. At the center, it’s more common to see ice and mixed precipitation as well as windy conditions. Areas north typically see snow; areas south see rain.

Storm tracks are shifting north, the study said, which will change what kind of hazards people face depending on where they land.

Historically, storm centers traveling through the Great Lakes would typically pass parts of Lakes Erie and Ontario, Hutson said. Now, storm tracks have slowly shifted so they end up in the upper parts of Lake Michigan and Huron, and even Lake Superior. That means warmer weather, melting temperatures and rainfall instead of snow anywhere south of that line.

Wisconsin is situated in the middle of this shift. Much of the state, especially the lower half, will continue to see winters with less snow and more rain, she said.

Extremes coupled with less ice means more floods

Ice cover in the Great Lakes has been declining for the past five decades, with year-to-year average ice cover swinging to extremes, from near record lows to near record highs. The impact of this is far-reaching, disrupting the lakes' food webs, fisheries and recreational opportunities.

The conditions also can create the perfect conditions for dangerous lake-effect snow , which happens when warm air masses move over the lake and suck up moisture from ice-free lakes. Lake-effect snow is actually rare in Milwaukee, but if it happens, it's as if someone slammed the accelerator on a snowstorm. Huge accumulations happen almost out of nowhere.

Huston said less ice cover coupled with wetter storms will increase the likelihood of wintertime flooding. And a cold snap followed by melting temperatures can lead to ice jams in rivers and creeks. Ice jams occur when snow melt coupled with rains cause rivers to swell, breaking apart the ice layer on top. This layer breaks into larger chunks that flow downstream and can pile up in narrower parts of the river, as well as near bridges and dams.

Ice jams are especially hazardous because they not only cause floods upstream by backing up water, they can cause flash flooding downstream when the ice eventually gives way.

The impact could be staggering

State records show $25 billion in total economic impact from tourism in 2023, a new record.

Winter was another story.

In Wisconsin, seven counties in the Northwoods reported losing a combined $6.5 million in the 2023-24 winter.

Moreover, last winter was the warmest the Great Lake states have experienced in the past 123 years, according to Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.

More: It's mid-January and the Great Lakes are virtually ice-free. That's a problem.

More: Lake-effect snow is actually relatively rare in Milwaukee. Here's how it works.

Caitlin Looby is a Report for America corps member who writes about the environment and the Great Lakes. Reach her at clooby@gannett.com or follow her on X @caitlooby .

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This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Cold, snowy winters are part of Wisconsin's identity. But are they a thing of the past?