Why is it raining more in Milwaukee this summer?

If you feel like you’ve been waking up to gloomy mornings for weeks in a row, you’re not imagining it: so far, this summer in Milwaukee has been more rainy than last year.

Since mid-May, it’s rained at least every few days, according to National Weather Service data . The longest streak of non-rainy days in the past two months was three days from May 17 to 19.

The summer rain comes after Milwaukee logged its third-wettest spring on record this year,  according to National Weather Service data going back to the 1870s. The spike in precipitation was a shift from last year’s historically dry spring , which eventually triggered a drought from May to June 2023.

Here’s what else to know about the rainy weather in Milwaukee this summer.

How much more rainy is it this year?

In June, Milwaukee saw 18 rainy days — up from eight days in 2023 and 10 days in 2022.

The city last experienced a June with 18 rainy days in 2021, but the total rain that month added up to 2.25 inches. This June, the total rain clocked in at 4.71 inches, slightly higher than the average of 4.38 inches from 1990 to 2022.

Across the state, this May was Wisconsin’s 10th wettest ever since 1895, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System . The NWS logged 6.52 inches of rain in May, up from the 3.52 inches average.

Why is it raining more than last year?

Incoming La Niña conditions are likely causing the rainier weather in Milwaukee, according to local NWS meteorologist Cameron Miller. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a La Niña watch in mid-June, a warning of below-average water temperatures brewing in the central Pacific Ocean. La Niña conditions are likely to develop between July and September and persist into the winter, according to NOAA.

“That means there’s going to be colder waters moving into the area that’s off of South America,” Miller said. “Typically, that gives us a little bit cooler, a little bit wetter conditions around the upper Midwest here.”

In previous years, the jet stream — strong winds that blow from west to east — has moved north earlier in the year, Miller said. That’s led to large areas of high pressure forming over the Central Plains and blocking off rain across the Midwest in the summer months.

“This particular year, we're not seeing that early start to the high pressure patterns over the Central Plains,” Miller added. “We did have it for a few weeks there — mid June, we were getting up into the 90s — but since then, we’ve kind of gone into a cooler pattern and gotten more rain.”

Still, Miller said the rainier weather is not yet a concern compared to last year’s drought. Though rain was about a third of an inch above average last month, last year Milwaukee saw only 1.82 inches of rain during June — more than two inches below normal.

What is the forecast for the rest of the summer?

It’s hard to predict how long the La Niña conditions will persist after they arrive, which also makes it difficult to say how the weather will look the rest of the summer, Miller said.

Once the La Niña conditions set in, the Midwest will see cooler weather, he said.

But at least for the next month, Wisconsin is in a “neutral phase,” with equal chances for hotter-than-average or cooler-than-average temperature, he added. For the next three months, in general, climate forecasts show a 40% to 50% chance of above-average temperatures.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Why is it raining more in Milwaukee this summer?