Trump and the Vance calculation

TRUMP AND THE VANCE CALCULATION. Milwaukee — Former President Donald Trump once privately told associates that the problem he faced selecting a running mate was that the field of possible partners did not include a no-brainer — a candidate whose appeal was so strong, so obvious, and so broad that he or she would have been a consensus pick that Trump could make without agonizing deliberations. Not having that no-brainer meant Trump would have to choose between less-than-perfect possibilities. On Monday afternoon at the Republican National Convention here in Milwaukee, he announced his choice: Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH).

Trump was tremendously successful in keeping his selection a secret. Modern political conventions don't have much drama — by 4 p.m. on the first day, the delegates had voted and declared Trump the 2024 GOP nominee, which was its big job for the week. Trump likes to create drama and excitement. He kept his choice a secret until almost literally the last minute — Vance was notified that he had been selected about 20 minutes before Trump publicly announced it on Truth Social, his social media network. The other apparent finalists in the Trump selection process, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), also learned at the last minute that they had not been selected.

In the hour or two after the announcement, after Vance came personally to the floor of the convention where delegates instantly voted for him by acclamation as the Republican vice presidential choice, I walked the halls of the Fiserv Forum and talked to quite a few delegates, alternate delegates, party officials, guests, and other political types. I asked each what they thought of the Vance pick. The results were mixed, reflecting the accuracy of Trump's observation that there was no no-brainer in the vice presidential field.

Some loved the choice. That was especially true, you will not be surprised, of the Ohio delegation. They liked Vance's youth — he is 39, and many see him, a millennial, as Trump's nod toward generational change, 39 years younger than Trump, 41 years younger than President Joe Biden, and 20 years younger than Vice President Kamala Harris. They like his enthusiastic embrace of "America First" and MAGA policies. They praised his intelligence, which is formidable, and saw him as running rings around Harris, who has accomplished little in office beyond coming up with a new and strange recipe for word salad. They look forward to a Vance-Harris debate.

More generally, they were impressed with Vance's genuinely impressive life: an impoverished childhood in Appalachia, growing up in a family hit hard by drug addiction — Vance told Fox News's Sean Hannity Monday night, "My mom is about to celebrate 10 years sober" — service in the U.S. Marines, college at Ohio State University, law school at Yale University, and then success in tech investing, a hugely successful memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, which was made into a movie, and finally a shift to politics, with his first elected position being U.S. senator. That's quite a resume.

Still, other conventiongoers were a little less enthusiastic. They fell into a couple of groups. One group had been looking for a more conventional pick, specifically one of the two businessman-governors in Trump's field of possibilities, Burgum and Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA). (There had been a Youngkin boomlet in the final days of the selection process, but it was never clear whether it was just talk.) These people tended to want executive experience in a choice, and the two governors, who were running their states after success in business, fit the bill perfectly. On the other hand, neither threw off sparks the way Vance can do. If the selection was about who is more interesting — and that is important to Trump — they didn't make the cut.

Others wanted a candidate who was maybe too interesting. Some had wanted to see Vivek Ramaswamy, and two people told me they had hoped for Gen. Michael Flynn. Former Sen. Rick Santorum, whose 2012 presidential run was a pivotal moment in the Republican Party's turn toward appealing to blue-collar voters, was unhappy, arguing that Vance was a terrible choice because he is not a small-government conservative. With a range of opinion like that, it's easy to see the challenge Trump faced in selecting a candidate to make most people happy.

Of course, because Vance is Trump's choice, and everybody supports Trump, now everybody supports Vance, too. The delegates woke up on Monday not knowing who Trump's vice presidential candidate would be. After they found out, with the Truth Social post, Vance instantly became the man. As Trump's pick, he is riding a new wave of support from Trump's party.

There's no doubt Trump put a lot of thought into it. When I talked to him on Sunday aboard his Boeing 757 as he flew to Milwaukee, less than 24 hours after he had been hit by a would-be assassin's bullet that easily could have killed him, the first thing he wanted to discuss was the vice presidential question. (He gave no clues about his decision.) He sought input from everybody. I really believe that if Trump ordered a pizza, he would have asked the delivery guy for his thoughts on the vice presidential candidates. He is a habitual audience researcher. He always wants to know what people think.

Now he has made his choice. It's safe to say that as a vice presidential candidate, Vance will be a forceful advocate for Trump, a strong defender of Trump in the media, and a smart adviser. Vance's Appalachian background and Marine experience might well help Trump expand his already-strong working-class appeal. Vance told Hannity that Trump specifically mentioned the possibility that Vance would help the ticket win the crucial states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If Vance can do that, even in just one of those states, he will very likely be the next vice president of the United States.