Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

The Milwaukee Brewers (57-42) and Chicago Cubs (48-53) begin a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Brewers vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 6-4

Both teams are coming off close wins.

The Brewers escaped Minneapolis with an 8-7 win as +143 underdogs at the Minnesota Twins Sunday with the Over (7) hitting. They pulled out the win despite a 2-run 9th inning by Minnesota. LF Jackson Chourio and C Eric Haase — Milwaukee’s 8 and 9 hitters, respectively — each had 3 RBIs.

The Cubs won 2-1 in 10 innings as -126 home favorites vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday as the Under (7) easily cashed. Chicago was trailing 1-0 entering the bottom of the 9th before DH Seiya Suzuki hit a game-tying RBI single. Cubs 2B Nico Hoerner, who scored in the 9th, walked with the bases loaded in the 10th to help Chicago avoid a 3-game sweep.

Brewers at Cubs projected starters

RHP Tobias Myers vs. RHP

Javier Assad

Myers (6-3, 3.13 ERA) makes his 14th start and 15th appearance. The rookie has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 72 IP.

• Last start: Win, 8 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 9-0 home victory against Pittsburgh Pirates July 10
• 2024 road splits: 4-3, 2.56 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance
• Careers vs. Cubs: 0-1, 7.00 ERA (9 IP, 7 ER), 1.78 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 in 2 starts

Assad (4-3, 3.27 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 85 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 2 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 0 K in 5-4 road loss vs. St. Louis Cardinals July 13
• 2024 home splits: 2-1, 2.38 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 8 starts
• Careers vs. Brewers: 1-1, 3.00 ERA (9 IP, 3 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 in 1 start and 2 relief appearances

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Brewers at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:43 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Brewers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Cubs +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+140) | Cubs +1.5 (-165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Brewers at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Cubs 3

MILWAUKEE (-120) posts the 4th-best record in MLB against divisional opponents at 21-12 (63.6%). Plus, it is 28-25 (52.8%) on the road, good for 8th in the majors.

LEAN BREWERS (-120).

The Brewers are just 6-14 on the run line as road favorites, and picking the Cubs at -165 is too juicy. I would PASS and stick with the moneyline.

Milwaukee has hit the Over at the highest rate in MLB this season, going 54-39-6 (58.1%) O/U. However, the main driver behind that number is the Brewers’ 27-15-4 (64.3%) Over record at home.

The Cubs are 33-23-2 (58.9%) to the Under as underdogs and 10-6 as home dogs.

Both pitchers have a sub-3.00 ERA in their road/home splits, so runs should be tough to come by.

BET UNDER 8.5 (-115).

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