Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

The Miami Marlins (37-66) and Milwaukee Brewers (59-43) open a 3-game set at American Family Field Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 2-1

The Marlins failed to sweep the Baltimore Orioles in a 3-game set Tuesday through Thursday. They wrapped up the series with a 7-6 loss in 10 innings as +174 home underdogs with the Over (8) easily hitting.

The Brewers won 2 of 3 at the Chicago Cubs, winning the series finale 3-2 as +128 underdogs Wednesday as the Under (7) cashed. Milwaukee has won 5 of 6, but All-Star OF Christian Yelich (back tightness) was forced to leave in Tuesday’s 1-0 win and is not expected to return until later this season.

Marlins at Brewers projected starters

LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Freddy Peralta

Rogers (1-9, 4.59 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.55 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 100 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 4-2 home win over New York Mets Sunday
• 2024 road stats: 1-4, 4.37 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 9 starts
• 2024 vs. Brewers: 0-0, 9.82 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 6 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 7-5 home loss May 21
• Career vs. Brewers: 3-0, 2.70 ERA (20 IP, 6 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 in 4 starts

Peralta (6-5, 3.88 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 109 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 8-4 win in 12 innings at Minnesota Twins Saturday
• 2024 home stats: 3-2, 4.50 ERA (50 IP, 25 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 11.9 K/9 in 9 starts
• 2024 vs. Marlins: 0-1, 1.29 ERA (7 IP, 1 ER), 4 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 1 start, a 1-0 road loss May 22
• Career vs. Marlins: 3-3, 4.19 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 in 9 appearances (6 starts)

Who’s going yard ? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Marlins at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML) : Marlins +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Brewers -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Marlins +1.5 (-105) | Brewers -1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under (O/U) : 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Marlins at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Brewers 3

Moneyline

The MARLINS ( +185 ) are worth a small wager as such big underdogs at the Brewers, who will be without 1 of their best hitters in Yelich. Milwaukee has scored a total of just 5 runs over its last 3 games and losing anyone at the top of the order is a huge blow to its offense.

The Marlins’ bats have come alive, scoring 4 or more runs in 5 straight games. While it’s not likely that this spark continues much longer, it’s hard to bet against them right now, especially since Rogers is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in 4 career starts against Milwaukee.

BET MARLINS ( +185 ).

Run line/Against the spread

Miami +1.5 (-105) is a decent play to cover at Milwaukee, but the plus odds on the ML is the preferred play with how erratic the Marlins have been this season.

PASS . Bet the ML and/or total instead.

Over/Under

The Under has hit in 3 straight for the Brewers, with Milwaukee averaging just 1.67 runs per game over that span. Miami has scored exactly 6 runs in 3 straight games (3-0 O/U), but that type of production isn’t likely to continue.

BET UNDER 8 ( -115 ).

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